Run-up to WW3

[Madrigal]

Wow, I still stand by my initial assessment- this will drag on until Trump is elected and repeals sanctions. A fitting end for the Pax Americana. Putin couldn't humiliate such a sweet rube like Trump, his absolute wet dream of an american president, it had to happen on Biden's watch.

Oh hell no, I can't hold my breath for 2 more years! It's hard enough opening the news every day hoping no cities have ceased to exist overnight.

[Dot]

I'll probably be dropping by for a bit because I need more places to brain-dump about this. I have Ukrainian friends and students, yesterday on the way to a protest saw a group of 5 or so Ukrainians board our bus, either fleeing their country or heading there to provide support (probably the latter). I feel like I'm in a parallel reality. Not in Kansas anymore.

Ukraine is winning the informational war. Their propaganda far outpaces Russian propaganda on social media; mainstream sources quote their stories regularly and Russian state-sanctioned media is essentially banned on all the major platforms now. And they're "winning" on the ground too, but this can't last. Russia has held back their full force, partly out of ineptitude + low soldier morale, and partly because they know that many Russians have close personal ties to Ukraine and don't want to see Kyiv go the way of Aleppo. Their full force is overwhelming, and consists not just of nuclear weapons, but various other tools that they've used in the past for inflicting humanitarian disasters.

Putin often says what he means. He doesn't want nuclear war; he wants Ukraine. He said he would use horrific means, if necessary, to achieve this goal - "consequences greater than any you have faced in history" - and many people immediately assumed this would mean his nuclear arsenal, but it could also mean the mass deployment of various types of thermobaric weapons, attacks on nuclear plants, and escalated shelling of the kind they've already started on hospitals and kindergartens.

This stage of the war, the "hot" war, isn't ultimately going to be determined by the strength of Ukrainian forces. They wouldn't be able to withstand such attacks in this phase. I think it will end over the next few days for one of the following reasons. Putin will cave under economic pressure, unable to feed the military, or oligarchs will overrule him. More likely, they'll escalate their attacks under the guise of Belarusian forces and resort to complete brutality to take Kyiv and either murder or imprison Zelenskyy. There's no outcome in which Putin voluntarily accepts a loss. He'll either be forced out or win in the short-term.

[Madrigal]

I'll probably be dropping by for a bit because I need more places to brain-dump about this.

Hey Dot, good to get your take on it. I was wondering about you these days. Hope you're well!

I too think this has to end soon; I interpreted Putin's announcement of putting his nuclear forces on high alert as a hysterical response to growing sanctions. I don't think he wants to live with this situation for very long. I really hope that Ukraine will agree to neutrality and that the peace talks finish this today.

[Dot]

I'll probably be dropping by for a bit because I need more places to brain-dump about this.

Hey Dot, good to get your take on it. I was wondering about you these days. Hope you're well!

I too think this has to end soon; I interpreted Putin's announcement of putting his nuclear forces on high alert as a hysterical response to growing sanctions. I don't think he wants to live with this situation for very long. I really hope that Ukraine will agree to neutrality and that the peace talks finish this today.

thanks, and same. I was ok until this week and still am 'objectively' I guess.

I hope they'll agree too, but I'm very worried that the peace talks are fake, seeing as Putin appears to at least superficially be taking cues from Soviet and Russian history, which would suggest that the delegation will be killed/arrested (like in midcentury Hungary and Poland). Glad Zelenskyy isn't going.

[Ferrus]

I too think this has to end soon; I interpreted Putin's announcement of putting his nuclear forces on high alert as a hysterical response to growing sanctions. I don't think he wants to live with this situation for very long. I really hope that Ukraine will agree to neutrality and that the peace talks finish this today.

He was also angry one of his favourite Chechen generals was killed too.

[Dot]

yeah so they're really escalating in Kharkiv right now, people killed because of indiscriminate shelling from rocket launchers.

at the same time I'm worried that the US gov is now putting too much pressure on Russia. They just froze Russian central bank assets, apparently aiming to totally destabilize the country. Poverty + national humiliation wasn't a good combination 100 years ago and I don't think so much has changed.

[Senseye]

at the same time I'm worried that the US gov is now putting too much pressure on Russia. They just froze Russian central bank assets, apparently aiming to totally destabilize the country. Poverty + national humiliation wasn't a good combination 100 years ago and I don't think so much has changed.

I don't agree with you here. If Russian was to withdraw I'm sure all the sanctions would be lifted in a reasonable time frame. The Ukraine wanted no part of this conflict. Ergo, it is the Russian government (Putin) that is inflicting economic hardship on his own people. Not just the sanctions but the billions Russia is probably spending waging this war. Average Russians might not know that due to Russian state propaganda, but that's not the US/EU fault.

I worry Putin might really unleash holy hell on the Ukraine, but atrocities like that will not win him any favors. It will galvanize Ukrainian resistance under a Russian puppet government (I am assuming an eventual Russian military victory in this case) and sanctions will continue or even increase. Even a 2nd Trump regime might not be able to overturn them in the US with public approval.

[Catoptric]

This may not actually be true according to Politifact, as it's likely a lie used to justify invasion (much as NATO is cockblocking Russia from raping Ukraine.)

Ukraine, US Biolabs, and an Ongoing Russian Disinformation Campaign
https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/02/24/ ... ne-russia/

Claim: 7 of 11 locations were missile targeted by Russia (and presumably have exposed the environment with whatever they were testing.)

Map of locations and info on bio threat mitigation
https://meaww.com/putin-bioweapons-labs ... ry-experts

Pentagon Biolab in Ukraine Exposed Performing Biological Experiments on Local Soldiers
https://www.planet-today.com/2022/02/pe ... K-i8Ftysbk

It might be to experiment on bioterrorism and how to counter-act it, though it does look suspicious. The US is known to allow experiments on foreign soil and the reason is it has tremendous risks involved with it.

Biological Threat Reduction Program

https://ua.usembassy.gov/embassy/kyiv/s ... K-i8Ftysbk

A lot of the reasons for Putin invading are probably not being revealed to the public. Also, the more desperation made of any diplomacy will have significant repercussions if, out of desperation Putin sees no consequences for going thermonuclear instead of thermobaric.

And again, if such a thing were true and were classified, wouldn't such facts be kept secret from the public if they didn't know how to interpret it?

[RonaldReaganBurnsInHell]

at the same time I'm worried that the US gov is now putting too much pressure on Russia. They just froze Russian central bank assets, apparently aiming to totally destabilize the country. Poverty + national humiliation wasn't a good combination 100 years ago and I don't think so much has changed.

I don't agree with you here. If Russian was to withdraw I'm sure all the sanctions would be lifted in a reasonable time frame. The Ukraine wanted no part of this conflict. Ergo, it is the Russian government (Putin) that is inflicting economic hardship on his own people. Not just the sanctions but the billions Russia is probably spending waging this war. Average Russians might not know that due to Russian state propaganda, but that's not the US/EU fault.

Russia isn't going to withdraw from this war, they're fully committed and vastly outnumber Ukraine. Unless Putin gets deposed somehow, the outcome seems somewhat inevitable. So where will that leave the sanctions? NATO will never recognize the resulting state that is formed, and so the sanctions will never be withdrawn. The country with the most nuclear weapons in the world will be held in the same sort of financial ruin that Cuba, Iran, and Venezuela are in.

[Buttrock as zen]

NATO will never recognize the resulting state that is formed, and so the sanctions will never be withdrawn.

That's why Trump is going to withdraw from NATO.