Run-up to WW3

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Sun Oct 16, 2022 2:16 am

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 12:29 am
jyng1 wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 12:05 am
You didn't answer the question. Do you know anybody living there? And I don't care if FSB Colonel Igor Girken and his Little Green Men invaded the Crimea 8 years ago in the confusion after the Revolution of Dignity.

No Ukrainians are going to talk to Putin until he gets out of Ukraine... and a recent YouGov poll of 25 countries found that almost all Western Countries agree with them.
The video I posted above shares a perspective from a journalist living there, in Donbas. The people there seem to be mostly pro-Russian. Those referendums saying so seem about as legitimate to me as Western polls saying that Ukrainians want more war. I don't really care if you're friends with people in Kyiv who want the fighting to continue. Anyone who supports war should be the one to suffer from it, but that's never how it works.

And of course other Western countries want more war in Ukraine, that was my whole point.
39% of the Donbas are ethnic Russians. After the Holodmor where the USSR carried out genocide by deliberate starvation and killed 3.9 million Ukrainians, the USSR moved ethnic Russians into their empty houses. So you'd expect a significant minority to be pro-Russian by ethnicity.

That's not an excuse to invade like Russia did in 2014 (and for Igor Girken to move a Russian artillery battery into Ukraine to shoot down MH17 with a Russian Buk missile before moving it back into Russia again).

You're saying a YouGov poll is illegitimate? Did soldiers with guns present the documents and watch while people answered the questions?

Other Western countries want the Russians to leave Ukraine. They've been pretty explicit about it. Only 4 countries in the whole world have voted to support Putin.

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Ferrus
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Ferrus » Sun Oct 16, 2022 12:26 pm

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:16 pm
Yes, of course the people of Britain had an incentive to peaceful resolution, but by that point they had already been forced between a rock and a hard place by their imperialist war-gaming leaders. British people just trying to live their lives found themselves forced into conflict with German people just trying to live their lives by a long escalating game of geopolitics happening far above their heads.
Right, so all of history would be a Rousseaun paradise of hippy communes if it weren't for 'geopolitics'? Messianic nationalist leaders bent on imperialistic expansion and subjugation are just a product of shadowy cabals right? Have you ever considered the security of 'everyday life' is almost entirely dependent on the capacity for the state to prevent a brutal international anarchy from seeping into everyday?
The only reason Ukraine is not a peaceful Russian puppet state right now is because of Western interference. Euromaidan was a CIA operation (in cooperation with neonazis). The entire Ukrainian war that's been going on for 8 years is the result of this same geopolitical power struggle. And right now if the leaders cared about the people then they would be trying to negotiate to give up the occupied regions. It's ridiculous to suggest that this would result in families being raped and tortured. The people suffer because of the war that benefits the elites, that how it always has been.

Anyway, war propaganda continues to be effective so I expect to be called a coward and worse, I don't give a shit.
Interesting, so any country that owes its existance to geopolitical reasons is illegitimate? But I mean, doesn't that include every country that exists? Or are you just against a rebellion that was aided by outside geopolitical forces is illigitimate? So by this argument the United States is an illigitimate country? I mean, a bunch of measly import duties to pay for their own defence and Quebec being allowed to be Catholic seem like a lot less serious reasons to assert political independence than having a kleptocratic leader imposed on you that is seeking to rob the country of its resources and slowly eliminate its existence. And also, didn't the French help out the American revolution for nakedly geopolitical reasons, and there was a far higher proportion of pro-British loyalist in the thirteen colonies than there are pro-Russians in Ukraine? Or maybe this reductio ab absurdum just suggests that these simplistic notions of what 'the people' want and feel clash with the realities of how populations feel about their country, home and the tensions of these with the realities of a Hobbesian world of power?

And ridiculous to suggest that would be the outcome? In spite of quite clear proof that that is exactly what is happening in the city of Kherson?
Ex falso, quodlibet

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Senseye
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Senseye » Sun Oct 16, 2022 4:16 pm

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:16 pm
The only reason Ukraine is not a peaceful Russian puppet state right now is because of Western interference.
Well, that and because Ukrainians didn't want to be puppets. Sure, they would have been quickly overrun without Western support and living in peaceful subjugation with Russian kleptocrats looting their resources. Not sure that is a good thing.

One could also say the only reason Ukraine isn't a peaceful free state is because of Russian interference.

Dot
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Dot » Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:44 pm

saying "The only reason Ukraine is not a peaceful Russian puppet state right now is because of Russian interference" would be getting warmer

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Ferrus
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Ferrus » Sun Oct 16, 2022 10:57 pm

Senseye wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 4:16 pm
Sure, they would have been quickly overrun without Western support and living in peaceful subjugation with Russian kleptocrats looting their resources. Not sure that is a good thing.
Not sure the subjugation would be peaceful. Prolonged guerilla war seems more likely.
Ex falso, quodlibet

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:10 am

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:16 pm
Sure, they would have been quickly overrun without Western support and living in peaceful subjugation with Russian kleptocrats looting their resources AGAIN
Lets not forget Yanukovych had a whole Government department set up to fleece the Ukrainian Treasury and sent billions to Switzerland (along with sending a disproportionate level of Government resources to Russian leaning Donbas)...

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Mon Oct 17, 2022 7:38 am

"So now we have the situation that we have someone who was conscribed, sent to the front and 15 days later he's dead". "How many do you think it will take to make people notice"? "Oh I think about 50,000" "How long do you think that will take" "Let's not talk about that"...


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starjots
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by starjots » Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:10 am

If you were wondering about the mobilized Russians, a very cogent first-hand account of a Russian from the far east who went from civilian to front lines to wounded in a few weeks. Something about this reminded me of a Putin-style 'Red Badge of Courage', if you're familiar with that book.


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puerile_polyp
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by puerile_polyp » Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:20 am

Ferrus wrote:
Sun Oct 16, 2022 12:26 pm
Right, so all of history would be a Rousseaun paradise of hippy communes if it weren't for 'geopolitics'? Messianic nationalist leaders bent on imperialistic expansion and subjugation are just a product of shadowy cabals right? Have you ever considered the security of 'everyday life' is almost entirely dependent on the capacity for the state to prevent a brutal international anarchy from seeping into everyday?

Interesting, so any country that owes its existance to geopolitical reasons is illegitimate? But I mean, doesn't that include every country that exists? Or are you just against a rebellion that was aided by outside geopolitical forces is illigitimate? So by this argument the United States is an illigitimate country? I mean, a bunch of measly import duties to pay for their own defence and Quebec being allowed to be Catholic seem like a lot less serious reasons to assert political independence than having a kleptocratic leader imposed on you that is seeking to rob the country of its resources and slowly eliminate its existence. And also, didn't the French help out the American revolution for nakedly geopolitical reasons, and there was a far higher proportion of pro-British loyalist in the thirteen colonies than there are pro-Russians in Ukraine? Or maybe this reductio ab absurdum just suggests that these simplistic notions of what 'the people' want and feel clash with the realities of how populations feel about their country, home and the tensions of these with the realities of a Hobbesian world of power?
I might say that every state that currently exists is illegitimate. On what basis does any state justify itself? The preservation of 'everyday life' which is always a hierarchy with a large exploited underclass for whom everyday life is decided by those above them. The security of your 'everyday life' depends on violence and slavery. And as a matter of principle I don't see land ownership is itself as "legitimate" because what gave any of us the right to exclude any other from living on the land? People should own what they create and the land was given to us all to share. And "History" is usually just a story written by the privileged few who see the lives of the many as pieces on a board.

To clarify, I wouldn't go as far as saying that there should never be a state, and I'm not 100% sure where to draw the line wrt local autonomy. I definitely think that the current world order is one of elites plundering regions of the globe to nobody's benefit but their own in the short term.
And ridiculous to suggest that would be the outcome? In spite of quite clear proof that that is exactly what is happening in the city of Kherson?
War crimes are part of war, and I've also seen claims that the Russian civilians in Donbas have been the target of atrocities. I'm highly skeptical of all such claims and whatever you might call "clear proof". But I do believe that war crimes are happening, just not necessarily that it's one-sided, and I think that ending the war is the first step in ending these things.

Ukraine is unwinnable and funneling weapons into it is bad for Russia but also bad for Europe and especially for the people who live there. Peace would be the reasonable thing, but of course it doesn't seem to make any sense at the end of so many unreasonable actions.
starjots wrote:
Tue Oct 18, 2022 1:10 am
If you were wondering about the mobilized Russians, a very cogent first-hand account of a Russian from the far east who went from civilian to front lines to wounded in a few weeks. Something about this reminded me of a Putin-style 'Red Badge of Courage', if you're familiar with that book.
I glanced at that youtube channel and it's a bunch of videos that claim to be from the Russian side disparaging Russia. The background of the channel is the Ukrainian flag, and the About page uses language critical of Russia. I'm just saying.

If you're interested in the truth you have to really question everything coming out right now because there's just a huge amount of propaganda being disseminated. The internet sucks now. And the stuff we're being exposed to at least is overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine. Look: https://theprint.in/tech/60-80-of-twitt ... y/1114878/

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:39 am

puerile_polyp wrote:
Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:20 am
If you're interested in the truth you have to really question everything coming out right now because there's just a huge amount of propaganda being disseminated.
Good advice. I think you do need to do a bit more research. Then you probably wouldn't be supporting Igor Girkin and Task Force Rusich...

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