Run-up to WW3

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Dot
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Dot » Sun Jan 22, 2023 4:41 pm

Senseye wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:43 pm
Dot wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:47 am
I would say that I'm concerned about Ukraine finding itself once more pulled in the direction of authoritarianism. That's typically what happens to countries embroiled in forever wars, and there are already signs that the Ukrainian government is both signing itself up for debt to forces that would encourage such, and on its own volition limiting key democratic institutions like the media. That's exactly why Ukrainians need weapons to defend themselves, regain conquered land in which their communities are trapped, and end the war as fast as possible. To understate it, the situation would not improve in either country if Russia were allowed to take all the territories they want and pursue a genocidal regime within them unhindered. Look at the political outcomes of any other perpetual war of the past that Russia involved itself in.
I generally agree. If NATO just would have shown some backbone in the beginning I think this whole mess could have been avoided. Showing some backbone now would still wrap things up. Alas, dickheads like Germany's Scholtz are still in the way.
Yes, but I'd say it's less about lacking a backbone than it is about money. The US and many other NATO members are profiteering (and the arms industry that underpins NATO).

I don't at all buy their narrative of "oh, we were worried about escalation so we only sent over a few weapons, now we're a bit less worried so we'll send a few more," and then a few later, etc. The US exploits nuclear propaganda every bit as much as Russia to their own ends, ratcheting it up to explain their "caution" and then toning it down when a big new deal is going through. They're prolonging the war by drawing out weapons shipments because doing so boosts their profits and gives them more leverage than sending everything all at once.

Last month, the senate passed a bill that boosted the defense budget from 740 to 850 billion. That kind of money doesn't get pushed through in the name of good intentions or concern for democracy.

An endless active war in Ukraine, sustained by a steady drip of weapons shipments over the course of years, would be the most profitable outcome for NATO, far more so than a quick win. That's one way in which I think so many people on the left have interpreted the situation precisely backwards. (In Central and Eastern Europe, of course, it's different, due to proximity and a better sense of context. Even Germany's Green Party, which always spoke out against militarism, advocated strongly for expansive heavy weapons shipments to Ukraine, partly because they're not making profits from its prolongation, unlike Scholz's NATO-enmired party.)

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puerile_polyp
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by puerile_polyp » Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:05 pm

Dot wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:07 am
If you could've come up with actual evidence that Zelenskyy himself and not just some percentage of Ukrainians like Bandera, by this point, you would have.
Zelensky: "so for me, look at the fact that Stepan Bandera is a hero for some percentage of Ukrainians and this is normal cool this is one of those people who defended the freedom of Ukraine"

You still have nothing to say about the fact that the Ukrainian parliament as a whole tweeted in support of Bandera.
So just to be 100% clear, you agree that your rant about the Volhynia Massacre suggests nothing about the current interest or lack thereof that Ukraine has in invading Poland, right? Putting aside the purely logistical limitations that you "ominously" referred to.
So now we agree? You're correct that I said nothing about Ukraine wanting to invade Poland.
lol you sound so fucking disappointed that we're not freezing to death.
I literally said that it's lucky. Stop trying to put malicious words in my mouth. The only one here celebrating evil is you.

And it's not you that would be freezing to death, I'm sure you have no worries about that. It's the poor people in those countries I mentioned, the ones who suffered the most in previous times when the Russian gas was cut off.
I didn't address the book burnings thing before because you made so many other false claims and also I didn't find any information about it one way or another in legitimate sources. So I finally searched for it on twitter and lol, there it is. Are you just basing this on random twitter trolls.
If by "random twitter trolls" you mean Richard Engel, chief foreign correspondent for NBC news, sure.

But literally burning books is such a minor part of it that I'll agree that it's hyperbole to use the phrase. I'm mostly concerned about the laws banning Russian literature and music, which are totalitarian enough in their own right.
Seems you've reduced this claim to only the "...in schools" part. It doesn't do your arguments any favors when you resort to hyperbole so often.
I cited a reliable source that talks about it in detail. It goes much further than "in schools" and it's a humanitarian crime. Imagine how people would react if USA banned instruction in the Spanish language in schools nationally. Imagine if they made it illegal for shopkeepers to greet customers in Spanish, with a fine imposed equivalent to half the average yearly salary. It would obviously be recognized as oppression of an ethnic minority.
Source? I've failed to find any legitimate body outside of Russia claiming that Ukraine has violated this covenant.
My source is the covenant itself https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-me ... cal-rights
Specifically articles 12 and 27
Draft evasion ("banning them from leaving the country") was criminalized in virtually all countries that use(d) the system...
That's not at all the equivalent of what's happening here. Ukraine has banned ALL men 18-60 from leaving the country, regardless of whether they've been conscripted. As the article I posted above makes clear "Countries have a right to conscript their citizens in time of war, but until incorporated into the military, these men remain war-affected civilians, entitled to the same protection and support as other civilians in war."
Judging by the way you're trying to worm out of this by circling back to "men 18 - 64," I assume you've dropped this claim too. But yeah, this is false.
I posted a poll above that shows that most Ukrainians do not support the law trapping half of the population within its borders. Here it is again. https://www.humansecuritylab.net/news/n ... travel-ban

And in other news, Facebook has decided that Azov is no longer a "dangerous organization", so they'll be allowed to organize and self-promote on that platform: https://www.engadget.com/meta-takes-ukr ... 47875.html

Actual swastika-waving nazis are okay now because the USA MIC supports them.

It was just very recently in history when waving a swastika around in public would earn instant, broad condemnation from the general public. "If you're at a rally and somebody is waving a nazi flag, you're at a nazi rally". Now those same people are apologizing for and defending neo-nazis. It will never cease to blow my mind how easily malleable the public will is. Whoever big brother says is the enemy, they'll be comforted in cheering for the home team. I'm just surrounded by bootlickers.

And you want to act like it's hyperbole to make comparisons to Nazis. They're waving swastikas. They're openly praising a man who collaborated with the Nazis and shared their most evil goals. They're oppressing ethnic minorities and enacting totalitarian controls on their population. It's right there in front of you.
An endless active war in Ukraine, sustained by a steady drip of weapons shipments over the course of years, would be the most profitable outcome for NATO, far more so than a quick win.
Exactly what I said pages ago. This is intended to be the next in a long line of forever wars. But Russia seems to have adapted their strategy to sit back in their own borders and launch missiles, drones, and fill the occupied territories with expendable troops from their prisons and ethnic minorities. The only ones to benefit will the war profiteers as Ukraine is devastated, the effects of which will echo for generations, as we've seen in the middle east most recently. Those who want peace will be mocked, silenced, denounced as traitors and cowards, as we've seen time and again.

And so I guess, for the majority of people contributing to this conflict, it's correct to say "War is Peace"

Dot
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Dot » Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:23 pm

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:05 pm
Dot wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:07 am
If you could've come up with actual evidence that Zelenskyy himself and not just some percentage of Ukrainians like Bandera, by this point, you would have.
Zelensky: "so for me, look at the fact that Stepan Bandera is a hero for some percentage of Ukrainians and this is normal cool this is one of those people who defended the freedom of Ukraine"
I can do that too

Zelensky: "so for me, look at the fact that Stepan Bandera is a hero for some percentage of Ukrainians and this is normal cool this is one of those people who defended the freedom of Ukraine."
So now we agree? You're correct that I said nothing about Ukraine wanting to invade Poland.
I don't know if we agree since you keep being ambiguous about it. That's why I asked you to clarify what you meant. Why is it so hard for you to come out with it and say that your reference to the Volhynia Massacre doesn't have any relevance to Ukraine's interest or lack thereof in invading Poland?

You seem to have some mental block that stops you from letting go of this because you're so obsessed with this idea of Ukraine as a Nazi regime. Seriously...no one believes that they'd ever want to invade Poland, regardless of "logistical obstacles" or whatever you called it. Not even the far-right Polish government.
I literally said that it's lucky. Stop trying to put malicious words in my mouth. The only one here celebrating evil is you.
In that case, thank you! I'm glad you genuinely think it's lucky when celebrators of evil like me don't freeze to death.
If by "random twitter trolls" you mean Richard Engel, chief foreign correspondent for NBC news, sure.
These are only identified as Soviet books. I know all this history that you're getting so worked up about is new to you, but you should at least know there's a difference between Russia and the Soviet Union. In any case, thanks for the source!
I cited a reliable source that talks about it in detail. It goes much further than "in schools" and it's a humanitarian crime. Imagine how people would react if USA banned instruction in the Spanish language in schools nationally. Imagine if they made it illegal for shopkeepers to greet customers in Spanish, with a fine imposed equivalent to half the average yearly salary. It would obviously be recognized as oppression of an ethnic minority.
AFAIK there isn't any Spanish speaking culture invading the United States after an era of oppression that led to millions of American deaths, so it's quite a different context.

I agree that it's bad to ban languages from being taught in schools, but once again take issue with your hyperbole, manipulation and bizarre rhetorics.
Source? I've failed to find any legitimate body outside of Russia claiming that Ukraine has violated this covenant.
My source is the covenant itself https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-me ... cal-rights
Specifically articles 12 and 27[/QUOTE]

You clearly haven't read those two articles closely enough. But good for you, taking a lone stand against the all those biased scholars of law and genocide.
That's not at all the equivalent of what's happening here. Ukraine has banned ALL men 18-60 from leaving the country, regardless of whether they've been conscripted. As the article I posted above makes clear "Countries have a right to conscript their citizens in time of war, but until incorporated into the military, these men remain war-affected civilians, entitled to the same protection and support as other civilians in war."
You wrote that banning people from leaving the country was only something the worst regimes did. As we've established, it is not. Imprisoning people for trying to evade the draft is one of many forms of banning certain groups of people from leaving during or even in the leadup to wartime, and it's been done in many countries that are considered democratic.
Judging by the way you're trying to worm out of this by circling back to "men 18 - 64," I assume you've dropped this claim too. But yeah, this is false.
I posted a poll above that shows that most Ukrainians do not support the law trapping half of the population within its borders. Here it is again. https://www.humansecuritylab.net/news/n ... travel-ban
Neither do I, what's your point? You originally said that "the Ukrainians" were banned from leaving the country and that they wanted to escape but the Nazis in Kyiv were stopping them. This interpretation conveniently leaves out the fact that 6 million refugees left and then returned of their own free will as of October last year. I'm sure that kind of population shift also happens in North Korea and all the other authoritarian regimes you mentioned, right?

Also, it's far less than half. (It's not all men 18 - 60, either.)
And you want to act like it's hyperbole to make comparisons to Nazis. They're waving swastikas. They're openly praising a man who collaborated with the Nazis and shared their most evil goals. They're oppressing ethnic minorities and enacting totalitarian controls on their population. It's right there in front of you.
With the same combination of cherry picking, lies, and rhetorical flourishes, you'd label at least half the countries in the world Nazi regimes.

Ukraine is a seriously flawed democracy. But I know that's not as fun to rant about on the internet.

Dot
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Dot » Mon Jan 23, 2023 6:16 am

One of the two Czech presidential candidates just said that he would break the Czech commitment to NATO if Russia were to make good on its (empty) threats and invade Poland, and not send any soldiers. But that's ok because if Ukraine is a Nazi regime, then Poland is...idk, what's worse than Nazis? We're running out of words for all the bad things.

I hope Russia invades the US too, because if Ukraine is bronze level Nazi and Poland is silver level Nazi then the US is gold level Nazi.

Edit: I think satanists and reptilians are stronger terms. Let's agree to use those words once we exhaust the word "Nazi" of all its meaning.

Dot
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Dot » Mon Jan 23, 2023 6:50 pm

Two interesting articles, first one about the rise and fall of a key Ukrainian politician and the second about Putin's "death cult"

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/01/20 ... kesman-spy

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/01/19 ... -only-cure

“radical nationalists and Orthodox extremists came to his aid. For Putin, they were understandable and organic with their anti-Western and autocratic ideas...According to Khapaeva, Russia’s politics of historical memory have developed along two main lines under Putin: “re-Stalinization” and “neo-medievalism.” “You can see this clearly in the way the memories of Ivan the Terrible and Stalin are perpetuated,” she said. “Numerous films that show these figures in a positive light have been made with state money... Russia isn’t the first country to be “infected” by such a “death cult,” Khapaeva noted: “This cult cost the Germans alone no less than 10 million human lives, [though] it’s not appropriate to compare the current Russian ideology to German national socialism or communism. Both of these ideologies were focused on the future, [while Russia’s] neo-medieval ideology looks to the past.”

Dot
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Dot » Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:40 am

https://www.vox.com/world/2023/1/24/235 ... tion-purge

"Within Ukraine, too, some of the government’s biggest critics redirected their energies to the larger war effort, according to a survey of 169 anti-corruption experts who responded in April 2022. Around 47 percent reported feeling endangered if they continued to fight corruption during the conflict.

This, of course, is why war and conflict can deepen corruption. Ukraine is fighting for its existence as a state, so, naturally, that’s the priority above all else. Government resources, attention, and funding all go to mobilizing for that, which means anti-corruption efforts and rule of law reforms fall by the wayside. On top of that, war creates plenty of opportunities for graft, with less time and attention on accountability and oversight."

(Although, in combination with the following article, I'd question the validity of the term "corruption." I think wealthier countries just tend to have formal infrastructure built up to hide and enable actions that are essentially similar.)

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/prigoz ... bel-slapp/

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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Catoptric » Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:26 am

Societal egress and ennui
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Dot
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Dot » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:06 pm


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Senseye
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Senseye » Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:10 am

Dot wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:40 am

This, of course, is why war and conflict can deepen corruption. Ukraine is fighting for its existence as a state, so, naturally, that’s the priority above all else. Government resources, attention, and funding all go to mobilizing for that, which means anti-corruption efforts and rule of law reforms fall by the wayside. On top of that, war creates plenty of opportunities for graft, with less time and attention on accountability and oversight.
This is certainly true. However, it's a false equivalency to compare corruption in Ukraine to corruption in Russia. Corruption is basically standard operating procedure in Russian. It's a criminal state basically. It is not surprising that some degree of corruption exists in Ukraine due to human nature and inherent greed. This is the case in almost all countries even the US and other western democracies. But if some people are trying to say Ukraine is no better than Russia because corruption has been detected, it's a ludicrous comparison.

Dot
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Dot » Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:24 am

Senseye wrote:
Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:10 am
Dot wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:40 am

This, of course, is why war and conflict can deepen corruption. Ukraine is fighting for its existence as a state, so, naturally, that’s the priority above all else. Government resources, attention, and funding all go to mobilizing for that, which means anti-corruption efforts and rule of law reforms fall by the wayside. On top of that, war creates plenty of opportunities for graft, with less time and attention on accountability and oversight.
This is certainly true. However, it's a false equivalency to compare corruption in Ukraine to corruption in Russia. Corruption is basically standard operating procedure in Russian. It's a criminal state basically. It is not surprising that some degree of corruption exists in Ukraine due to human nature and inherent greed. This is the case in almost all countries even the US and other western democracies. But if some people are trying to say Ukraine is no better than Russia because corruption has been detected, it's a ludicrous comparison.
I agree with this and the article isn't drawing a false equivalency, just emphasizing that Russia is successfully hindering Ukraine's ability to conduct reforms by means of the war. The problems in Ukraine related to corruption and the far right exist (as far as I know & certainly in CZ) in all the post-Soviet countries. It's just a fact of life and everyone is annoyed by it but it's difficult to eliminate, in part because Russia was ensuring its persistence in its sphere of influence. As both of us said, corruption of some sort probably exists in all countries, but I would add that it's a different flavor than in the US, for example. (It's difficult to compare/rank because it looks so different in each culture, and also, I'm not an expert on this so maybe I'm just rambling.)

In any case, I'm sure it would win some "rhetorical points" against whatever trolls lurk hereabouts to not mention corruption in Ukraine but I don't really care about that and I think lots of the less positive articles have useful info too. It's one of those things that lots of Ukrainians, and Russians, for that matter, always complain about so I don't think it's bad to bring it up. I've worked and volunteered with a lot of Ukrainian refugees over the last year, and that's one thing that's come up a few times, but of course far more frequent are comments that they want Russia to leave their country so that they can go home and be safe again.

Another important development from a few days ago:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 337363ec1e

"THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Europe’s top human rights court ruled Wednesday that it can adjudicate on cases brought by the Netherlands and Ukraine against Russia for alleged rights violations in eastern Ukraine in 2014...The court said evidence presented at a hearing last year established that from May 11, 2014, areas in eastern Ukraine controlled by separatist rebels were “under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation” and that Moscow “had a significant influence on the separatists’ military strategy” including providing weapons, carrying out artillery attacks requested by the rebels and giving them political and economic support."

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