Run-up to WW3

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Sat Jul 23, 2022 9:52 pm

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 9:28 pm
jyng1 wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:35 am
What are they going to take it with? The 60 year old tanks they've had to start using? Driven by the soldiers they've either press ganged into service or sent to the front as punishment? I guess they could do a general mobilisation but then they'd have to admit to the Russians at home that they've been lying for 5 months.
They started the general mobilization already: https://www.smobserved.com/story/2022/0 ... /6746.html

I mean Russia has two million troops in reserve, that was openly known before this year. Idk why you'd think they're running out of people.

Where's Ukraine gonna get people to defend with? Ukrainian troops are being trained in the UK on a much smaller scale and sent into battle after just a few weeks.
Most of their original invasion force has either been killed or injured and the Ukrainians have just destroyed almost every major ammunition store in occupied Ukraine... Even the Russians admit they don't have the resources left to continue the invasion.
Really, which Russian admitted this? That would be an interesting to thing to say while simultaneously on the offensive, bombing the crap out of Kharkiv and Odesa. Russia is claiming they're destroying the much-lauded HIMARs: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/2 ... in-ukraine

NATO can send all the weapons they want, they still need trained people to operate them. Without more boots on the ground Ukraine is fucked. NATO won't put boots on the ground because that's too big of a line to cross.
Lol... "Russia is claiming". Absolutely no one takes Russias claims seriously; about anything.

Russia has 85% of it's Army in Ukraine and they're not going anywhere. They took one small village near Severodonetsk in the last couple of days and that's it.

The Ukrainians meanwhile hit an administration building in Lisyčansʹku and killed about 50 officials and soldiers...

Interesting article you posted btw...

"A full-on mobilization is extremely costly [and] puts Putin in the territory where there are risks to the stability of his regime," says @nataliyabugayova. "Russians may be supporting the war [but that] doesn't mean they want to fight and die in it."

Russia relied on vast superiority of the number of artillery. Their problem now is that Ukraine now has artillery that outranges them and is extremely accurate. You can't fire artillery without people knowing where it is and the Russians had been using established fire bases with large ammunition stores... This video shows what the Ukrainians are now doing to them.


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puerile_polyp
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by puerile_polyp » Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:30 pm

jyng1 wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 9:52 pm
Lol... "Russia is claiming". Absolutely no one takes Russias claims seriously; about anything.
This is the most interesting part of all of this for me actually. Trying to parse all of the different claims coming out of this and get a sense of what might actually be going on. I'm not gonna take Ukraine's claims "seriously" either. I'm just not treating any source as independent and objective anymore. You have to look at who's making the claim and consider their motives.

If you want objective, there's geography and physics. To a lesser extent, history and economics. We know that there are three times as many people in Russia as Ukraine. The numbers say that Russia's GDP is like 10x that of Ukraine. Obviously Ukraine needs the support of bigger countries to win. And I just don't see those bigger countries stepping forward with the support necessary.

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:02 am

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:30 pm
jyng1 wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 9:52 pm
Lol... "Russia is claiming". Absolutely no one takes Russias claims seriously; about anything.
This is the most interesting part of all of this for me actually. Trying to parse all of the different claims coming out of this and get a sense of what might actually be going on. I'm not gonna take Ukraine's claims "seriously" either. I'm just not treating any source as independent and objective anymore. You have to look at who's making the claim and consider their motives.

If you want objective, there's geography and physics. To a lesser extent, history and economics. We know that there are three times as many people in Russia as Ukraine. The numbers say that Russia's GDP is like 10x that of Ukraine. Obviously Ukraine needs the support of bigger countries to win. And I just don't see those bigger countries stepping forward with the support necessary.
150 day summary


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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:10 am

There was a summary on the radio this morning from Dr Jack Watling senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (the world's oldest military thinktank)

https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018850607

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Sun Jul 24, 2022 4:20 am

Are you watching "boom porn" again? Yup. (apparently the Ukrainians have more known targets than Himars missiles... although they wasted twelve on the Daryivskyi bridge across the Ingulets river). Himars does not have the destructive power to destroy a large bridge like that.



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Senseye
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Senseye » Sun Jul 24, 2022 5:48 pm

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:30 pm

This is the most interesting part of all of this for me actually. Trying to parse all of the different claims coming out of this and get a sense of what might actually be going on. I'm not gonna take Ukraine's claims "seriously" either. I'm just not treating any source as independent and objective anymore. You have to look at who's making the claim and consider their motives.
I tend to agree with you that all claims about military successes/losses need to be taken with a huge grain of salt. However, I think Ukraine can be believed about political and humanitarian claims whereas Russia absolutely cannot (i.e. anything to do with truce negotiations and all the b.s. that Ukraine is bombing their own cities, the latter is ludicrous).

I also disagree that the west needs to put boots on the ground. If the west provides anti-air/anti-missile defenses and a few other things (ammo mainly) I think Ukraine will eventually tire out Russia. Although Putin will throw many of his own people into the meatgrinder before ever giving up. At some point, even the gullible propaganda believing Russians will start to become disgruntled about their dead children.

Finally, what choice does Ukraine have? Capitulate? They didn't like Putin's pupped regime before when he was just a crook. Now he is a murderous psychopath in their eyes (I guess he always has been). Would you want this guy running your country? He's never gonna be content until Ukraine is back under his thumb unless he is repelled by force.

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Ferrus
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Ferrus » Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:41 pm

Regarding Russian numbers, a general mobilization would solve some of Russia's limitations. The fact Putin hasn't done this yet suggests some degree of reluctance to do this politically. Sending muzhiks from Siberia is a different proposition to sending Muscovites and St Petersburgians into the meat-grinder. Let's not forget Putin himself saw the effects of the Soviet-Afghanistan on public morale as one of the major contributing factors towards the ennui and collapse of the USSR.

Truthfully, I expect him to announce this eventually. Russia can draw on a bigger reserve than Ukraine - though the population differentials aren't as large as one might think - maybe between 2 and 3 times in favour of Russia - and Russia needs to be on the offensive which is a harder task with poorly trained conscripts than pure defensive warfare, especially in home terrain. It would definitely allow Russia to bleed out Ukraine for longer though.

By all accounts Russia seems to be turning to a defensive crouch now, in order to build up forces for a new assault in early 2023. The real question now is if Ukraine can make meaningful advances in the Kherson oblast. If it can then it will disrupt Russia's ability to launch further offensives. If they prove incapable of offensive action though it could well points to years more of attritional warfare.
Ex falso, quodlibet

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:00 am

Ferrus wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:41 pm
By all accounts Russia seems to be turning to a defensive crouch now, in order to build up forces for a new assault in early 2023. The real question now is if Ukraine can make meaningful advances in the Kherson oblast. If it can then it will disrupt Russia's ability to launch further offensives. If they prove incapable of offensive action though it could well points to years more of attritional warfare.
They can't wait. Sitting around just means they provide more targets for Himars. They lost a couple of S300 surface to air missile batteries yesterday at a cost of $130 to $150 million each.

The longer they wait the more and better western artillery and low level air defence the Ukrainians get. Stormer is apparently in theatre now...

It's just an absolute mess for the Russians as we enter day 153 of a 3 day war.

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Senseye
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Senseye » Tue Jul 26, 2022 5:02 pm

A big issues is that the US might reduce support for Ukraine after the the mid-terms if the Dems lose control of the House, and they will certainly lose control of the Senate (not that they really have that now). In theory Republicans should be anti-Russia just from the old cold war days, however, Trump's love of a good dictatorial narcissist (i.e. someone like himself) appears to make him a fan of Putin. His brain dead base tend to adopt his attitudes. Those attitudes appear to have a significant influence on the Republican party in general.

The average American has little concern for what's going on outside US borders at the best of times. Right now they are all wrapped up with inflation and fuel prices. As such, public will for continued Ukrainian support may flag. That will be bad news for the Ukrainians as the Eurozone does not appear to be willing to pick up the slack if US support wanes.

Hopefully, US military aid for Ukraine will continue despite the above, but it's a concern.

Dot
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Dot » Wed Jul 27, 2022 3:55 pm

^yeah. Haven't read up on this so idk how realistic it is but I'd guess it's likely that Putin will announce that the denazification is complete and try to make a peace deal sooner rather than later, simultaneously continuing torture & deportations from the occupied regions, and then attempt to shame Ukraine internationally for continuing to fight. Framing Russia in a "defensive" posture might convince a few European countries (US too if Republicans regain control) to pull back. A lot of countries believed that grain deal and are still willing to give Russian diplomacy the benefit of the doubt so I guess it could happen.

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