Run-up to WW3

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:47 am

Senseye wrote:
Tue Jul 26, 2022 5:02 pm
That will be bad news for the Ukrainians as the Eurozone does not appear to be willing to pick up the slack if US support wanes.

Hopefully, US military aid for Ukraine will continue despite the above, but it's a concern.
I think the US support is fairly bipartisan (apart from Trump blackmailing Zelensky), but the eurozone has given quite a lot already. I think the problem was that they don't have an awful lot of stuff just sitting on the shelves ready to go after downsizing after the end of the cold war. There's apparently a shortage of artillery shells, manpads, etc to replace the enormous number they're shooting down range in Ukraine. But Germany has just agreed to sell another 100 PzH 2000 SPGs to Ukraine and that's not insignificant.

I don't know what's happening with the Russian stuff. They've fired an absolutely enormous number of 152mm artillery shells and have just lost 30-50 ammunition stores in the south. They've also fired something like 3,000 cruise missiles into Ukraine. You have to wonder how much they have left? (and with the Antonivka Bridge being badly damaged, how they're going to get it to their troops around Kherson). You'd also have to wonder how they're going to build more considering their chips are made in Taiwan and Taiwan is refusing to sell them any more.

We know they're running short of MBTs as they're sending T62s into Ukraine (which are as old as I am and just as out of date and creaky).

They've also hit the 40,000 death mark according to Ukraine today... out of 220,000 who initially invaded nearly half have been killed or wounded.

Ignoring the deaths and injuries of others seems like a Russian trait though.

Soldiers win battles, logistics win wars.

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Catoptric
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Catoptric » Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:37 pm

Trying to understand Taiwan and why China pretends to be in control of it.

Taiwan represented mainland China in the United Nations once they lost their seat in the United Nations, but the Republic of China which once existed inside China is no longer considered a country by China following the civil war when mainland China opposed Kuomintang and Chiang Kai-shek who would originally have wrested power from Emperor Puyi (1912,) forming the ROC, until the PRC deposed him and sent him to Taiwan to become the seat of power which they then separated themselves from, and now has PRC representing themselves in the UN with Taiwan still clinging on due to a US military base being present.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_ ... 80%931949)

"Both the ROC and the PRC still officially (constitutionally) claim mainland China and the Taiwan Area as part of their respective territories. In reality, the PRC rules only Mainland China and has no control of but claims Taiwan as part of its territory under its "One China Principle"."

It sort of reminds me of when Missouri during the Civil War had the capital building in Marshall, TX, since it couldn't establish itself in it's own territory, yet in this situation, it's as if the main Union government shrugged its shoulders at someone claiming to be a sovereign citizen? At this point, it's similar to if Tibet was considering itself to be a separate government well after China started modernization and took control of it.
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puerile_polyp
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by puerile_polyp » Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:11 am

Can anyone see a non retarded reason for Pelosi's Taiwan visit? It just seems like a very poorly thought out move with no potential benefit.

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:27 am

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:11 am
Can anyone see a non retarded reason for Pelosi's Taiwan visit? It just seems like a very poorly thought out move with no potential benefit.
To push back the date the PLA invades Taiwan closer to 2035 when Xi has to have it done...

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starjots
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by starjots » Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:10 pm

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:11 am
Can anyone see a non retarded reason for Pelosi's Taiwan visit? It just seems like a very poorly thought out move with no potential benefit.
Taiwan is the key manufacturer of advanced computer chips in the world. Until a reliable nation develops a similar capability, the US has to defend Taiwan. This is in addition to all the other strategic partnerships in the region that would suffer greatly if we didn't back them up.

I think Pelosi went because:
1. The situation in Ukraine may be viewed by the leadership in China as an opportunity to attack Taiwan while the west is distracted. Putin visited China before he invaded Ukraine and Xi declared they were now fishing buddies. I think it highly likely Putin came to an understanding that they would support each other in their respective regional power grabs.
2. If Biden went, it would be more provocative.
3. Congress has a constitutional role in foreign policy. Pelosi tends to try to do the right thing from a historical perspective.
4. Having a congressional delegation go would introduce uncertainty into China's calculations. They understand 1 person rule, not an active legislative branch.

Personally, I think it shows things are quite serious/on the brink between China and Taiwan. And I think it was the right thing to do.


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puerile_polyp
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by puerile_polyp » Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:09 pm

starjots wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:10 pm


Taiwan is the key manufacturer of advanced computer chips in the world. Until a reliable nation develops a similar capability, the US has to defend Taiwan. This is in addition to all the other strategic partnerships in the region that would suffer greatly if we didn't back them up.



I think Pelosi went because:
1. The situation in Ukraine may be viewed by the leadership in China as an opportunity to attack Taiwan while the west is distracted. Putin visited China before he invaded Ukraine and Xi declared they were now fishing buddies. I think it highly likely Putin came to an understanding that they would support each other in their respective regional power grabs.
2. If Biden went, it would be more provocative.
3. Congress has a constitutional role in foreign policy. Pelosi tends to try to do the right thing from a historical perspective.
4. Having a congressional delegation go would introduce uncertainty into China's calculations. They understand 1 person rule, not an active legislative branch.

Personally, I think it shows things are quite serious/on the brink between China and Taiwan. And I think it was the right thing to do.

I'm well aware of the strategic importance of Taiwan. But how does Pelosi going there right now help to defend it? It seems purely provocative, at a time when the West is in the weakest position its been in in our lifetimes. We are in a recession with 40-year-high inflation and no apparent plan to get out of it. We are struggling with energy production, largely due to policies aimed at climate change, and still dependent on Russia even as we're trying to fight a proxy war with them. And we can't even afford to fight that proxy war, economically or politically. We've sat and watched Russia take chunks of Europe for more than a decade with no response other than toothless sanctions. And now we're sending some weapons, but no bodies, not even in the air. We can't afford an actual war, not after blowing trillions of dollars all over the middle east for the last 20 years and accomplishing nothing.

Russia appears to be massing troops in Ukraine for another push btw.
Pelosi tends to try to do the right thing from a historical perspective.
She's certainly tried to make the right moves in the stock market, and made her family very rich as a result. And with Biden and other people in gov openly saying they didn't want Pelosi to do this, it really makes me question her motives.
Personally, I think it shows things are quite serious/on the brink between China and Taiwan.
We should have already known that, and this move definitely seems to have dramatically escalated this tension, and it just seems like terrible timing. And I don't even think it's much of a symbol of defiance when Pelosi and everyone else are still declaring their support for the One China policy.

This shit is gonna get fucked up. Our economy is gonna suffer. We are gonna be inundated with war propaganda like its 2003 again. Fuck this gay earth.

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:57 pm

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:09 pm
Russia appears to be massing troops in Ukraine for another push btw.
They just got their arse kicked again.

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Senseye
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Senseye » Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:47 pm

I don't have much good to say about Pelosi in general, but I liked that she went to Taiwan. Can't always appease these dictator types, it just emboldens them.

Not sure about the timing. Probably political, the Dems seem to be trying to score some wins before the midterms (al-whatshisface, watered down BBB bill, and this). Biden is perceived as weak and senile so Pelosi is trying to show some backbone on his behalf. That's my theory anyways.

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:10 am

Senseye wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:47 pm
I don't have much good to say about Pelosi in general, but I liked that she went to Taiwan. Can't always appease these dictator types, it just emboldens them.

Not sure about the timing. Probably political, the Dems seem to be trying to score some wins before the midterms (al-whatshisface, watered down BBB bill, and this). Biden is perceived as weak and senile so Pelosi is trying to show some backbone on his behalf. That's my theory anyways.
I can't imagine she made the decision independently. Senior government lawmaker past her used by date goes and everyone else raises their hands in horror... sounds like plausible deniability to me while still demonstrating to China that the US won't turn a blind eye to the PLA invading Taiwan.

Well, not until their $52 Billion chip manufacturing industry is moved to the US at least...

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starjots
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by starjots » Sat Aug 20, 2022 7:51 am

tl;dw

Getting off the Russian natural gas tit. Europe is aggressively seeking alternate supplies for natural gas. It's going to take time, but Russian gas imports are already cut in half, US exports of LNG have more than doubled. Russia is shooting itself in the foot economically, and this is going to cost $$ for everyone in Europe.


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