Run-up to WW3

[Dot]

NATO isn't going to invite in Ukraine any time soon. Zelenskyy was just doing a publicity stunt to counter Putin's speech and apply pressure for more weapons.

Also, Putin didn't annex anything. He never even spelled out precisely what areas he wanted to annex (leading to embarrassed confusion in Russian state media). His threat that he would consider nuclear means to defend theoretically annexed, "Russian" territory against a theoretical NATO attack is also highly theoretical in itself, considering that Ukraine has loudly taken credit for attacks on "Russian" Crimea over the last few months and Putin's reaction to that was total silence.

All of this is propaganda. Putin is a scared gangster who's trying to extort as much as he can. When he's had enough, he'll recreate a new Russian legal and media environment, kill off whoever protests, and maybe get killed off in the process too.

[Dot]

I guess everything would change if Russia accidentally blows up Zaporizhzhia as they try to connect it to their grid. They just abducted the main guy there. I think Biden said NATO would get directly involved of radiation spread to NATO territories. That's the biggest worry for me, accidents leading to escalation.

[Senseye]

On a different note, but somewhat related, I see Brazil is having an election soon. Bolsonaro, who is trailing in the polls, is already doing his Trump impersonation and sowing the seeds the election is rigged (if he doesn't win, if he wins all is well) and may attempt a coup. Unlike Trump in the USA, Brasil is a bit new to the democracy game and Bolsonaro appears to have the support of the military, so he just might pull it off.

We'll see. If it all goes sideways in Brazil it will be another log on the fire of global instability. Many countries in Africa also seem to be a bit of a shit show as these days.

[puerile_polyp]

Ukraine has attacked Russian soil before, and that was part of Russia's justification for invading. But launching rockets or artillery strikes is one thing, sending in troops to occupy territory is another.

I think Putin, and many Russians probably, see the outcome of this war as existentially important. If they lose outright, back down and retreat, concede to the West, they know they're looking at rough times ahead that will be like the 90s or worse. The fall of the Soviet Union was a horrible time for people and if I were in their shoes I would have a lot of resentment towards the West. Westerners forget or don't know that Putin is seen as the one who brought them out of those hard times and oversaw a huge economic recovery.

Ukraine started taking back some territory, and now he's saying "don't do that or I'll start nuking". And I'm not sure that Putin and the majority who support him wouldn't be willing to escalate to nukes out of spite if they feel they're going to be crushed by the West again.


We are seeing the rise of the right wing politicians again because people are scared, plain and simple. The more scared people get, the uglier life gets.

And Catoptric pointed out something important, our spycraft and electronic warfare seem to be in a sorry state compared to our enemies. Even Iran has carried out successful attacks on US defense companies. I'm not confident at all in our ability to deal with whatever cyberattacks China might have in store for a serious escalation.


Anyway who do you guys think blew up the Nord Stream?

[Ferrus]

I guess everything would change if Russia accidentally blows up Zaporizhzhia as they try to connect it to their grid. They just abducted the main guy there. I think Biden said NATO would get directly involved of radiation spread to NATO territories. That's the biggest worry for me, accidents leading to escalation.

Ramzan Kadyrov has been talking about using tactical nukes, and recommending it. Worrying but a two edged sword:

a) on the one hand he was the main force pushing for mobilisation
b) on the other hand he has become more openly critical and sarcastic about Putin's leadership and even jokes about Putin bumping him off for his outspokenness (he was placed on the galleries during the recent annexation ceremony)

So a difficult one to read, but for me this is the most likely cause of escalation, especially after Russia's encirclement and humiliation at Lyman yesterday.

Also, Putin didn't annex anything. He never even spelled out precisely what areas he wanted to annex

Yes he openly asked for negotiations and then didn't spell out the extent of his territorial claims. This to me suggests his game plan is:

a) start to make open signs of launching a tactical nuke, even launch one
b) freak out the West
c) create the situation for negotiations to start dramatically and quickly due to nulcear powers being involved (like the Sino-Soviet border conflict)
d) leave enough ambiguity in his territorial ambitions that the West could accept some kind of scaled-back version of the oblasts he was ceding (a bit like the Minsk agreement)

The problem is, I doubt this will work, as Ukraine has no incentive to back down - even tactical nukes against their dispersed forces will not be militarily effective - and even if they nuke cities they know this will be a trip-wipe for 3 NATO countries with nuclear weapons. Western countries have a strong incentive not to negotiate because the circumstances of the annexation involve massive long-term risk: this would destroy any incentive for nuclear non-proliferation and propel every country with territorial greivances - take Turkey's eying Greek islands for example - to get nukes and their potential victims to do the same. All of which seems likely, at the least, to invite a world of small-scale nuclear crises and even wars.

A more likely compromise would be that ceasefire lines are drawn, the West doesn't recognise the annexation but allows de facto Russian control to continue, ala Nagorno-Karabakh, Northern Cyprus, South Ossetia. How realistic such an agreement is also depends a lot on how likely it is felt Putin will use the time to regroup and lunge at Kiev again in 4-5 years.

[starjots]

Anyway who do you guys think blew up the Nord Stream?

Russia. My reasoning is that Putin is banking on extreme economic stress in Europe and thereby indirectly on the US (if Europe is falling apart, it's a cause of concern to the US government) forcing Ukraine to negotiate. Without western support Ukraine can't sustain a war for long even if Russia is crippled.

Anyway, instead of just cutting off all the gas, he is throwing the usual fog of bullshit around his decision in order to deflect and blame someone else, even if just for how it looks to his own population.

The hard winter in Europe card is his only real weapon left.*

I think the mass mobilization backs this up. It's coming off as a stopgap measure to slow down his losing the war on the ground, I presume, until the real economic pressure combined with the threat of nuclear blackmail leads to some split in western support.

*Nukes are great until you have to use them, then you've lost (and maybe someone else has lost too). Surely he realizes any use, even tactical, will bring a response that outweighs the benefits, even if it's just conventional. NATO can wipe the floor of anything he has within reach with conventional forces and has months to plan. But then again, Putin is a human and might make an irrational move.

[Ferrus]

Russia. My reasoning is that Putin is banking on extreme economic stress in Europe and thereby indirectly on the US (if Europe is falling apart, it's a cause of concern to the US government) forcing Ukraine to negotiate. Without western support Ukraine can't sustain a war for long even if Russia is crippled.

Same, but for different reasons. It is a warning of what Russia is capable of, a horsehead in the bed moment. Everyone knows Nord Stream is dead and not coming back on in our generation, it was essential worthless.

But it's sure as hell a scary message to European countries about how easy Russia can fuck with their maritime assets: see Norway-Poland gas pipeline, the British, Icelandic and Norwegian gas and oil rigs in the North Sea, see the telecommunications cables of the coast of Ireland that the Russian navy was ominously hovering over just before the war, even the pipelines from North Africa to southern Europe.

[Dot]

I guess everything would change if Russia accidentally blows up Zaporizhzhia as they try to connect it to their grid. They just abducted the main guy there. I think Biden said NATO would get directly involved of radiation spread to NATO territories. That's the biggest worry for me, accidents leading to escalation.

Ramzan Kadyrov has been talking about using tactical nukes, and recommending it. Worrying but a two edged sword:

a) on the one hand he was the main force pushing for mobilisation
b) on the other hand he has become more openly critical and sarcastic about Putin's leadership and even jokes about Putin bumping him off for his outspokenness (he was placed on the galleries during the recent annexation ceremony)

So a difficult one to read, but for me this is the most likely cause of escalation, especially after Russia's encirclement and humiliation at Lyman yesterday.

I think Kadyrov is in a similar situation to Putin. He knows that a lot of people despise him and will be quick to bring him down if his image of ruthless power starts being questioned too much. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... vs-undoing He sees that Putin is relatively weak now so he's trying to make his public image distinct from him. (I wonder if this could be the groundwork for a civil war, but I guess it's unlikely.) And seeing as he was too scared to set foot in Ukraine even though he staged photos of himself pretending to be there, I don't think he'd be calling for nukes if he thought Putin would actually use them. I think there are multiple reasons why Putin chose to finally mobilize, but one of them might've been calling this type of bluff before the stakes get too high.

This isn't new or unique to Kadyrov, though. Medvedev has been advocating for nuclear annihilation, the Russian Empire, etc, just as much as Kadyrov as far as I can tell, the only difference is that everyone knows he's just a drunk nerd whereas Kadyrov has social media clout. They're both part of a big group of nationalists that Putin needs on his side because he hasn't got them locked down the way he managed with the 'progressives.'

I wonder if Putin might actually be a lot closer to losing power than he seems, since the mobilization came this late. It only would've been useful if he'd done it a long time ago, which suggests that he resisted the idea and then, humiliated or frustrated, gave in under pressure. This breaks his whole contract with the Russian public (that they can live relatively stable lives in return for turning a blind eye to his abuses) because he's forcing them to be active participants. Staining his legacy this way seems like a choice he would only make if the alternative was completely terrifying to him.

Yes he openly asked for negotiations and then didn't spell out the extent of his territorial claims. This to me suggests his game plan is:

a) start to make open signs of launching a tactical nuke, even launch one
b) freak out the West
c) create the situation for negotiations to start dramatically and quickly due to nulcear powers being involved (like the Sino-Soviet border conflict)
d) leave enough ambiguity in his territorial ambitions that the West could accept some kind of scaled-back version of the oblasts he was ceding (a bit like the Minsk agreement)

The problem is, I doubt this will work, as Ukraine has no incentive to back down - even tactical nukes against their dispersed forces will not be militarily effective - and even if they nuke cities they know this will be a trip-wipe for 3 NATO countries with nuclear weapons. Western countries have a strong incentive not to negotiate because the circumstances of the annexation involve massive long-term risk: this would destroy any incentive for nuclear non-proliferation and propel every country with territorial greivances - take Turkey's eying Greek islands for example - to get nukes and their potential victims to do the same. All of which seems likely, at the least, to invite a world of small-scale nuclear crises and even wars.

A more likely compromise would be that ceasefire lines are drawn, the West doesn't recognise the annexation but allows de facto Russian control to continue, ala Nagorno-Karabakh, Northern Cyprus, South Ossetia. How realistic such an agreement is also depends a lot on how likely it is felt Putin will use the time to regroup and lunge at Kiev again in 4-5 years.

I think Putin probably knows at this point how Ukraine would react. I don't think he's crazy or driven by ideology; going back to the very beginning, *everyone* thought Russia would roll right over Ukraine, even its strongest allies thought that. His choice made sense based on the information he had, and he thought it would be a relatively easy way to shore up his image at a critical time.

He also knows (he basically said so) that he's at risk of losing Chinese and Indian support. If he chose to launch a nuke, that would be the end of the economic lifeline from Asia that supports his remaining conventional forces. It would also further inflame tensions within Russia, which is what seems to worry him more than anything (I think it's this same fear that led him into the war in the first place).

He's playing the nuclear card effectively now, but if he plays it any other way, he would lose. Russia's nukes are only valuable as threats and he seems to know that.

edit: just for the sake of not feeling hypocritical, I'll note that I *am* worried about the end of the world etc, but I just don't objectively think it's likely to happen

[Ferrus]

He sees that Putin is relatively weak now so he's trying to make his public image distinct from him. (I wonder if this could be the groundwork for a civil war, but I guess it's unlikely.)

I mean, his whole posture was that he was the son of a Chechen separatist who was given broad powers to run Chechnya as his personal fief with Sharia law etc. in exchange for troops and cleaning the place of separatist feelings. Putin's mobilisations and the disproportionate use of manpower from ethnic republics have upset that - as seen in Dagestan which is closely tied to Chechnya in terms of their recent history - so he is having to walk a tightrope to present his own support base evaporating.

They're both part of a big group of nationalists

I don't know, Medvedev kind of pissed off Putin by abstaining on the Libya vote and was seen as way too liberal as president. His whole time since then has been some kind of weird attempt to prove to Putin he is really 'hard enough' (he isn't) - quite a strange figure really.

*everyone* thought Russia would roll right over Ukraine

Not everyone - I can think of some military analysts who pointed out Putin would limit his ambitions to the Donbass or east of the Dnieper as they didn't have the size of a military capable of anything else - but certainly no one estimated this level of resistance.

[Dot]

He sees that Putin is relatively weak now so he's trying to make his public image distinct from him. (I wonder if this could be the groundwork for a civil war, but I guess it's unlikely.)

I mean, his whole posture was that he was the son of a Chechen separatist who was given broad powers to run Chechnya as his personal fief with Sharia law etc. in exchange for troops and cleaning the place of separatist feelings. Putin's mobilisations and the disproportionate use of manpower from ethnic republics have upset that - as seen in Dagestan which is closely tied to Chechnya in terms of their recent history - so he is having to walk a tightrope to present his own support base evaporating.

yeah, Kadyrov mostly kept his forces back for this reason (except on social media lol) and after all that time calling for mobilization, he announced that it won't apply to Chechnya. I guess Dagestan didn't have that luxury.

I don't know, Medvedev kind of pissed off Putin by abstaining on the Libya vote and was seen as way too liberal as president. His whole time since then has been some kind of weird attempt to prove to putin he is really 'hard enough' (he isn't) - quite a strange figure really.

definitely, I don't think this current attempt at monstrosity represents the coward he is "deep down" but that's the thing about the cycle Russia seems to be permanently stuck in. You never know who you're going to get because of all these complicated genocidal and/or benevolent theatrics that are required of people. Putin used to have quite a different face too (literally and figuratively).

Not everyone - I can think of some military analysts who pointed out Putin would limit his ambitions to the Donbass or east of the Dnieper as they didn't have the size of a military capable of anything else - but certainly no one estimated this level of resistance.

Some people with better inside knowledge must have suspected this not least because of the level of corruption in the Russian military, but I guess the extent of it was nearly impossible to measure. Now there are all those people on twitter saying "don't worry, all of Russia's nukes are looted/broken anyway"...ugh.

That's one of the scarier aspects to me, though. Putin must've known about these levels of corruption...in some ways, he designed it that way and benefited from it at every rung. But he chose to pretend it didn't matter. I just hope he won't fall for his own propaganda.