I think Putin is bluffing. Or attention seeking, term it what you will.
So my bet is nothing much happens.
Run-up to WW3
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Buttrock as zen
- Posts: 58
- Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:23 am
- Formerly: stuck
Re: Run-up to WW3
Howitzers being placed on trucks for transport.
https://fb.watch/ba3lnNzYtV/
And embargos with submarines.
It almost seems like Kim Jong-Un parading with an even bigger missile. Much of the shipments being shown in media almost makes it seem as though it's all a staged event.
https://fb.watch/ba3lnNzYtV/
And embargos with submarines.
It almost seems like Kim Jong-Un parading with an even bigger missile. Much of the shipments being shown in media almost makes it seem as though it's all a staged event.
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puerile_polyp
- Posts: 173
- Joined: Fri Nov 22, 2019 3:01 pm
Re: Run-up to WW3
Looks like it's about to kick off in Donetsk. This will be a cake walk for Russia.
Re: Run-up to WW3
I don’t think it is going to be that easy for Russia with NATO and the West supporting Ukraine. Even if they do take Donetsk and even Odessa, the future doesn’t look so good for Russia.
Re: Run-up to WW3
Turkey is has actually been selling drones to many countries, it has been called a ‘drone superpower.’ Germany’s military isn’t as large and powerful as it could be and the country’s dependence on Russian gas put’s it in an uncomfortable spot. They probably should have not closed down a bunch of nuclear reactors as a response to what happened in Fukushima, Japan. After all, Germany is not a seismic or volcanic country and nuclear power is it’s still clean, safe and cheap.
Re: Run-up to WW3
Well, you win some, you lose some. 
I am still completely baffled about what Putin hopes to gain from all this. Assuming the EU and/or Biden gains a spine and place some serious economic sanctions on Russia post invasion, that would have to cause Russian some serious pain. Even if they successfully annex the so called disputed regions, it seems hardly worth the effort.
Surely Russian can't conquer and then occupy the entire Ukraine. They couldn't even handle Afghanistan. Also, I assume the EU would kick up a fuss over that, even if Ukraine is not a NATO member.
I'm clearly no expert on the regional politics though.
I am still completely baffled about what Putin hopes to gain from all this. Assuming the EU and/or Biden gains a spine and place some serious economic sanctions on Russia post invasion, that would have to cause Russian some serious pain. Even if they successfully annex the so called disputed regions, it seems hardly worth the effort.
Surely Russian can't conquer and then occupy the entire Ukraine. They couldn't even handle Afghanistan. Also, I assume the EU would kick up a fuss over that, even if Ukraine is not a NATO member.
I'm clearly no expert on the regional politics though.
Re: Run-up to WW3
Without wishing to be held a hostage of fortune... I feel the most likely scenario is he takes all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper. I don't think the LPR and DPR are sufficient gain for the risk here. There are Russian troop movements around the Belgorod oblast so a resurrection of the Kharkiv People's republic seems inevitable, as well as pushing LPR and DPR to oblast limits. The rest of Eastern Ukraine - including critically the Black Sea and Odessa with great strategic value could be partitioned to a Russia friendly alternative government that would I guess get dubbed East Ukraine a la East Germany with time. That region is reasonably pro-Russian and probably couldn't sustain an insurgency like the more culturally hostile Western region could. Probably with a concomitant siege and bombing of Kiev to force the Western rump to swallow the status quo.
Last edited by Ferrus on Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ex falso, quodlibet
Re: Run-up to WW3
Russia could have an invested interest in acquiring the uranium supply from Ukraine as it's aware that shifts in technology towards EV (and possibly missile defense,) with less dependency on Russia for gas/oil exports, will compromise their long-term interest. Sanctions will only work to prevent Russia from invading if the countries have a viable alternative in place to not rescind on their dependency for oil, and the Ukraine is their geopolitical chess piece which recently talked of stepping up their nuclear refinement capabilities shortly after it's being discussed at the end of 2021 of renewed possibility that Putin might invade.
"Europe gets some 40% of gas, 26% of oil needs from Russia"
Russia produces about 2,9000 tons of Uranium while Ukraine is about 800 tons, and Khazikstan leads with 22,000 tons which might be supplying a lot of China's uranium since they produce about 1800 tons.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/count ... by-country
China and Russia would rather remain neutral with Khazekstan, and Russia sees Ukraine as having a clear history with potential leverage as far as they see it (and many are comparing Russia to Germany with how they gradually establish their precedent with further encroachments into other territories, and Putin has all the hallmarks of an evil person.)
"Europe gets some 40% of gas, 26% of oil needs from Russia"
Russia produces about 2,9000 tons of Uranium while Ukraine is about 800 tons, and Khazikstan leads with 22,000 tons which might be supplying a lot of China's uranium since they produce about 1800 tons.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/count ... by-country
China and Russia would rather remain neutral with Khazekstan, and Russia sees Ukraine as having a clear history with potential leverage as far as they see it (and many are comparing Russia to Germany with how they gradually establish their precedent with further encroachments into other territories, and Putin has all the hallmarks of an evil person.)