Run-up to WW3

[puerile_polyp]

All of my social media is full of dumb people freaking out over this nothing burger. It's so boring, it's like it's super bowl Sunday again. Or another terrorist attack with everyone posting thoughts and prayers selfies and shit. I'm just wondering what is quietly being done while the public is distracted.

[Senseye]

All of my social media is full of dumb people freaking out over this nothing burger. It's so boring, it's like it's super bowl Sunday again. Or another terrorist attack with everyone posting thoughts and prayers selfies and shit. I'm just wondering what is quietly being done while the public is distracted.

That's kind of an odd comment. What makes you think a free country being over run by a dictatorial one is "nothing". Do you consider peoples lives and freedom irrelevant?

And then you wonder about what might be "quietly being done". What have you got in mind? Perhaps nefarious activities that would impinge on your rights and freedoms? Isn't that more nothing burger in your worldview?

Or do you imply immoral acts are only relevant when you are personally on the receiving end?

[Madrigal]

The thing about not wanting NATO right on Russia's borders is a real issue, and has been since long before Putin came along--but the idea that starting an actual war over it will make Russia more secure seems utterly absurd.

I read an editorial today about how we are faced with a new Europe that will be divided between "Russia's vassal states" and "NATO nations". It would have been more truthful to say Russia's vassal states and USA's vassal states, since NATO is largely that. NATO has been a cloak of legitimacy and a supply of cannon fodder for US military adventures for 20 years now and a lot of people in Europe currently see membership in NATO as the opposite of national sovereignty, and rightly so. I personally don't believe countries in Europe have been generally made safer by joining NATO as has been demonstrated by the fact that US wars have brought death to European soldiers and terrorists attacks to European soil. I'm saying this now because Putin's invasion of Ukraine is partially undoing all the healthy realizations re: NATO and lessons learned throughout this century. That is a shame.

It's hard not seeing NATO, primarily the US, as largely to blame for what is happening now and it is no coincidence that it should occur while the Democrats are in the White House - an incredibly warmongering party steeped in Cold War mentality. We can only speculate at this point, but it's possible we would have seen such an escalation earlier if Clinton had defeated Trump in 2016. Pushing for Ukraine membership in NATO is now being denounced by many mainstream American analysts as a gross miscalculation. I think Russia has every reason to see an existential threat in NATO bases and missiles lined up on its border pointing at Moscow, Ukrainian membership in hindsight should have been unthinkable folly, and we should feel pretty stupid for having believed the wishful thinking of those who insisted Russia would never proceed with this invasion.

Putin's gonna Putin and he has been successfully flexing his muscles in Georgia, Crimea, the Donbass, Syria and Kazakhstan. So where did such wishful thinking come from? A chronic underestimation of Russia? Residual 90s triumphalism? Some analysists have speculated that Europe's denialism up until now may have been at least partially due to a new generation in politics that couldn't actually conceive of such a retro scenario as a large war in Europe. Then there is just the idea that NATO's gonna NATO and cannot arrest its logic of expansionism despite being faced with a new geopolitical landscape. One whose tensions and contradictions I think were exacerbated and went into overdrive during the scramble for vaccine autonomy and the race for economic recovery during the pandemic. It is not innocent that Russia's vaccine should be called Sputnik V in a throwback to the space race. The growing confrontation with Russia was real.

The changing landscape was ignored. USA had already decided since the end of the Cold War that Russia should remain in a semicolonial position, that NATO should continue to expand eastward in waves, and that Russia should forever be denied of any sphere of influence whatsoever. The US no longer have the standing to expect or ensure such a thing. Anyone who didn't see it before is seeing it now.

I guess I am posting this while hoping that no country will be blown to smithereens any time soon. Personally I'm afraid of some freak incident setting off WW3, as when some anarchist decided to kill an archduke in Sarajevo.

[Madrigal]

And then you wonder about what might be "quietly being done". What have you got in mind? Perhaps nefarious activities that would impinge on your rights and freedoms? Isn't that more nothing burger in your worldview?

I don't mean to sound like an old fart but this seems to be classic millenial thinking, influenced by the conspiratorial tone of social media. Sometimes things are just exactly what they seem.

[Madrigal]

As an aside, I take back my statement of Zelensky being a fool. I am really impressed with him right now. I think someone with a classic political background may have hopped on that helicopter the US offered him. But no, he has been arming his people, encouraging resistence and even calling for an international legion of volunteers, which is something we haven't seen since the Spanish Civil War's International Brigades. He says all the right things.

I mean, except that Ukraine should join NATO, that was still pretty dumb.

[Madrigal]

Yeah so when I have time to post, I post.

Here are some articles I thought were interesting.

The Eurasian Nightmare (Foreign Affairs)

What if Russia Wins? (Foreign Affairs)

Get Out of the Ukraine Mess and Avoid Nuclear War (Asia Times)

We Are All Living in Vladimir Putin’s World Now (NYT)

Chronicle of War Foretold (CounterPunch)

Oldie but goodie:

Neo-Nazis and the Far Right Are On the March in Ukraine (The Nation)

[puerile_polyp]

That's kind of an odd comment. What makes you think a free country being over run by a dictatorial one is "nothing". Do you consider peoples lives and freedom irrelevant?

"A free country being overrun by a dictatorial one", LOL. None of these people are free. They're all being conscripted by their governments and displaced by them to be used as pawns in a geopolitical power game between elites.

Also, this is the status quo that happens every day of our lives. As we speak NATO is bombing poor people in several other countries. Or do you still believe in that "free world" crap?

And then you wonder about what might be "quietly being done". What have you got in mind? Perhaps nefarious activities that would impinge on your rights and freedoms? Isn't that more nothing burger in your worldview?

Or do you imply immoral acts are only relevant when you are personally on the receiving end?

It's actually the opposite, I think immoral acts are always relevant regardless of how culturally similar to me the victims are, so I'm always pissed about what's going in the world and always managing my mental health. We live in an evil empire. Our economy depends on slavery. Every day there's endless new things to be outraged about.

And frankly I'm just sick of all the pro Western propaganda all over every social media site. It's ridiculous and cringy. It seems like almost everyone just swallows the bullshit that big brother cares about your interests at all and waving a flag and wearing a uniform and dying "for your country" are anything to be admired or glamorized.

All this "ghost of kyev" shit, all the pics of "captured" Russians, all the straight up gore I've been seeing of "dead civilians killed by Russians". Straight up video game footage being presented as reality and most people buying it. All of the Ukrainian flag waving like we care about their sovereignty when we just supported a coup to overthrow their "democratically elected" president. Everybody calling everyone else Nazis because it's the dumbest strategy that just keeps working. All the recycled pics of other conflicts used to mislead. Every "reputable" news outlet is doing it. At this point it's like "is this really any different from living in China?"

As an aside, I take back my statement of Zelensky being a fool. I am really impressed with him right now. I think someone with a classic political background may have hopped on that helicopter the US offered him. But no, he has been arming his people, encouraging resistence and even calling for an international legion of volunteers, which is something we haven't seen since the Spanish Civil War's International Brigades. He says all the right things.

I mean, except that Ukraine should join NATO, that was still pretty dumb.

Fact Check- These images do not show Ukrainian President Zelenskiy fighting after Russia invaded his country

I mean he has been posting propaganda on his social media, that's about it. He claimed yesterday that everyone was shutting off Russia from SWIFT. And handing out guns in the street turned out to be a shitshow because the people are divided and shooting each other. Also he's just a NATO puppet doing what he's ordered.

I'm not a communist but more and more I agree with "no war but class war"

[Senseye]

Well, that gives me context.

I don't agree with your worldview, but whatever. All I can say is I would rather be "not free" in a western democracy than "not free" in Russia, China, or a number of other authoritarian regimes. YMMV.

[Madrigal]

I mean he has been posting propaganda on his social media, that's about it. He claimed yesterday that everyone was shutting off Russia from SWIFT. And handing out guns in the street turned out to be a shitshow because the people are divided and shooting each other. Also he's just a NATO puppet doing what he's ordered.

I'm not a communist but more and more I agree with "no war but class war"

Oh I won't deny he's a NATO puppet but he could definitely be doing worse right now as Commander in Chief considering he only quit his day job as a comedian relatively recently.

And if it's even true that a tiny fraction of Ukrainians are using the guns against each other, that's just a risk he has to take. I absolutely support the arming of the populace in the event of an imperialist invasion. Regardless of whether that nation's Commander-in-Chief is a democratically elected president or a dictator. Losing a war with an imperial power only doubles a nation's oppression (Leon Trotsky dixit), so it's in everybody's best interest to defeat an invader.

In other news, it appears there will be peace talks on Monday and Russia may be wanting to wrap this up as increasingly severe sanctions roll in (what with the SWIFT and airspace bans). Dare we dream? :/

[Buttrock as zen]

Wow, I still stand by my initial assessment- this will drag on until Trump is elected and repeals sanctions. A fitting end for the Pax Americana. Putin couldn't humiliate such a sweet rube like Trump, his absolute wet dream of an american president, it had to happen on Biden's watch.