Run-up to WW3

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puerile_polyp
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by puerile_polyp » Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:36 am

You guys are still giving a shit about Republicans and democrats as we plunge into financial crisis and Russia and China are pouncing on the west's historical weakness. It's gonna get ugly. Ukraine is lost and Taiwan is on the block. Watch us try to fix our economy when the chips are cut off. I'm more anticipating the debt crisis this October, no election will matter compared to that.

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Fri Jul 22, 2022 4:09 am

puerile_polyp wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:36 am
You guys are still giving a shit about Republicans and democrats as we plunge into financial crisis and Russia and China are pouncing on the west's historical weakness. It's gonna get ugly. Ukraine is lost and Taiwan is on the block. Watch us try to fix our economy when the chips are cut off. I'm more anticipating the debt crisis this October, no election will matter compared to that.
I'm not sure the Ukrainians surrounding an entire Russian BTG in Vysokophilla near Kherson are lost...

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puerile_polyp
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by puerile_polyp » Fri Jul 22, 2022 8:29 am

Madrigal wrote:
Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:37 pm
There is something absurd about AOC and other congresspeople getting arrested for protesting in front of the Supreme Court as if the only thing someone in their position can do about this is walk around the streets shouting like a regular plebeian.
I love how she pretended to be handcuffed, classic AOC. I would so love to see her run against Trump next time around. Or against Ben Shapiro, that would be a fantastic election season. I'd also love to see Oprah vs Kanye. Or since you suggested Liz Cheney I would put her against Joe Manchin.

Joe is pretty entertaining though and I wasn't expecting that. He gives me the vibe of a royal family member from a parliamentary country, like he's just having a good time and people pay attention to what he says because of the title and tradition, but nobody thinks he's actually calling any shots.
jyng1 wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 4:09 am
puerile_polyp wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:36 am
You guys are still giving a shit about Republicans and democrats as we plunge into financial crisis and Russia and China are pouncing on the west's historical weakness. It's gonna get ugly. Ukraine is lost and Taiwan is on the block. Watch us try to fix our economy when the chips are cut off. I'm more anticipating the debt crisis this October, no election will matter compared to that.
I'm not sure the Ukrainians surrounding an entire Russian BTG in Vysokophilla near Kherson are lost...
Well it seems like the war is going in the wrong direction. Russia is expanding their goals and taking more territory. And Europe is still dependent on Russian gas.

Europe plans to force countries to ration gas as Russia weaponizes energy https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/20/energy/e ... index.html

It's gonna be a rough winter. And the sanctions haven't done shit, Russia is making record profits selling oil to China and India.

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:09 am

puerile_polyp wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 8:29 am
Well it seems like the war is going in the wrong direction. Russia is expanding their goals and taking more territory.
It's taken fuck all. It barely has more than it had in 2014. It's been a catastrophic failure so far for Russia and it's losing badly.

Dot
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Dot » Fri Jul 22, 2022 8:11 pm


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puerile_polyp
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by puerile_polyp » Sat Jul 23, 2022 9:35 am

jyng1 wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:09 am
puerile_polyp wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 8:29 am
Well it seems like the war is going in the wrong direction. Russia is expanding their goals and taking more territory.
It's taken fuck all. It barely has more than it had in 2014. It's been a catastrophic failure so far for Russia and it's losing badly.
That's interesting because they just declared their intention to reintegrate Novorossiya, and make western Ukraine part of Belarus. Ukraine is openly saying that they need more western support urgently to win before winter or else Luhansk and Donbas are going to be lost for good, which would fulfill Russia's original war goal. And Russia is on the offensive. Doesn't sound like losing to me.

It's simple, Russia has a huge amount of manpower and can win wars of attrition the old fashioned way, throwing human suffering into it. If NATO steps in too much, Russia will cut off the gas and the grain and create immigrant/refugee crisis in Europe. And if they don't Russia will probably take the gas and grain production in Ukraine and bend Europe further over that barrel.

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:35 am

puerile_polyp wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 9:35 am
jyng1 wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:09 am
puerile_polyp wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 8:29 am
Well it seems like the war is going in the wrong direction. Russia is expanding their goals and taking more territory.
It's taken fuck all. It barely has more than it had in 2014. It's been a catastrophic failure so far for Russia and it's losing badly.
That's interesting because they just declared their intention to reintegrate Novorossiya, and make western Ukraine part of Belarus.
What are they going to take it with? The 60 year old tanks they've had to start using? Driven by the soldiers they've either press ganged into service or sent to the front as punishment? I guess they could do a general mobilisation but then they'd have to admit to the Russians at home that they've been lying for 5 months.

Most of their original invasion force has either been killed or injured and the Ukrainians have just destroyed almost every major ammunition store in occupied Ukraine... Even the Russians admit they don't have the resources left to continue the invasion.

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Senseye
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by Senseye » Sat Jul 23, 2022 4:02 pm

Per the article Dot linked, I think all the west has to do is keep supplying Ukraine with arms. They'll exhaust Russia eventually, although with much pain and suffering. After all, Ukraine can't quit. I liked that article because I have been seeing other articles from western appeasers who think Ukraine should just give up Donbass and Luhansk to get peace. Pretty sure that would not work, as Russia would just pause for a bit to re-arm before coming back for more.

Another approach would be for NATO to step in seriously (provide air support) and Russia would have no chance. But yes, that would cost countries their gas supplies and Putin would threaten other shenanigans. I'd suggest it, but too much cowardice from NATO and the real energy dependent Euro countries seems to have already scuttled the notion.

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jyng1
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by jyng1 » Sat Jul 23, 2022 9:20 pm

Senseye wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 4:02 pm
Per the article Dot linked, I think all the west has to do is keep supplying Ukraine with arms. They'll exhaust Russia eventually.
The Ukrainians have pretty much used all their soviet era ammunition and are now relying on western arms. The west have so far been giving them what has essentially been sitting on the shelf and that is now getting low... I guess the west needs to decide whether to shift into what is fundamentally going to be war production.

The Ukrainians have been using the Himars sparingly hitting Headquarters and ammunition dumps, which has been extremely effective, but the Himars missiles are not in plentiful supply even in the US.

The Russians can't replace the troops they've lost without a general mobilisation and even if they do replace them, they can't train and equip them in a short amount of time.

The Russians have imperial ambitions and the latest missile attack in Odessa is just one more demonstration they can't be trusted... there is no other choice for the west apart from giving full support to Ukraine.

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puerile_polyp
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Re: Run-up to WW3

Post by puerile_polyp » Sat Jul 23, 2022 9:28 pm

jyng1 wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:35 am
What are they going to take it with? The 60 year old tanks they've had to start using? Driven by the soldiers they've either press ganged into service or sent to the front as punishment? I guess they could do a general mobilisation but then they'd have to admit to the Russians at home that they've been lying for 5 months.
They started the general mobilization already: https://www.smobserved.com/story/2022/0 ... /6746.html

I mean Russia has two million troops in reserve, that was openly known before this year. Idk why you'd think they're running out of people.

Where's Ukraine gonna get people to defend with? Ukrainian troops are being trained in the UK on a much smaller scale and sent into battle after just a few weeks.
Most of their original invasion force has either been killed or injured and the Ukrainians have just destroyed almost every major ammunition store in occupied Ukraine... Even the Russians admit they don't have the resources left to continue the invasion.
Really, which Russian admitted this? That would be an interesting to thing to say while simultaneously on the offensive, bombing the crap out of Kharkiv and Odesa. Russia is claiming they're destroying the much-lauded HIMARs: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/2 ... in-ukraine

NATO can send all the weapons they want, they still need trained people to operate them. Without more boots on the ground Ukraine is fucked. NATO won't put boots on the ground because that's too big of a line to cross.

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