Run-up to WW3

[Dot]

at the same time I'm worried that the US gov is now putting too much pressure on Russia. They just froze Russian central bank assets, apparently aiming to totally destabilize the country. Poverty + national humiliation wasn't a good combination 100 years ago and I don't think so much has changed.

I don't agree with you here. If Russian was to withdraw I'm sure all the sanctions would be lifted in a reasonable time frame. The Ukraine wanted no part of this conflict. Ergo, it is the Russian government (Putin) that is inflicting economic hardship on his own people. Not just the sanctions but the billions Russia is probably spending waging this war. Average Russians might not know that due to Russian state propaganda, but that's not the US/EU fault.

I worry Putin might really unleash holy hell on the Ukraine, but atrocities like that will not win him any favors. It will galvanize Ukrainian resistance under a Russian puppet government (I am assuming an eventual Russian military victory in this case) and sanctions will continue or even increase. Even a 2nd Trump regime might not be able to overturn them in the US with public approval.

While I 100% agree with you that Putin is primarily responsible for the war and its economic repercussions in Russia, I don't see how that supports your point that this newest round of sanctions won't destabilize Russia, if that's what you're saying (otherwise I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with).

Russians are lining up at ATMs and trying to withdraw any other currency, but there's nothing left. Nearly 18 million Russians in 2021 were already impoverished, so this will really push the lives of citizens into an untenable position. They're not going to go to work because they won't get paid. They won't be able to use most of the internet. They won't be able to buy essentials. There will be food and other shortages.

It would be nice to think this leads in a linear fashion to the overthrow of Putin and Putinites. But who would replace him, Navalny? I mean, first of all, that wouldn't happen for many reasons, but just to make the point that the opposition is also terrible - he has supported Russia's past imperial wars, argued that all Georgians should be expelled from the country, and used slurs to describe essentially all of Russia's satellite ethnicities/countries. So I don't think he would be less warmongering than Putin. Our best hope would be a whisp like Medvedev, combined with the hope that whoever his new puppeteers turn out to be aren't as vicious as his current one.

But thinking, in the first place, that these massive sanctions affecting Russian citizens will lead them to turn against the establishment might be overly wishful. They live in a different media world. There's a lot of news coming out about Russians learning about the conflict in shock, and surprisingly large protests, but nonetheless many are still hyper-nationalistic and supportive of their current regime. Putin oversaw the economic rise of Russia many years ago and significant improvements in living standards. Those concrete facts, combined with incessant propaganda and a draconian system for punishing dissidents, will be a lot of cognitive dissonance for most people to overcome to the extent that they'd not just start to have doubts, but actually overthrow him.

Anyway, even if they did overthrow him, I'm just not sure there's anyone better who could rise to power in the resulting mix of wartime humiliation, nationalism, and poverty. That, combined with the country's nuclear capacity, is pretty scary.

edit: just to be clear, though, I do support the other sanctions and actions taken against Russia. I liked that video of the oligarch crying on TV because he lost his Italian villa.

[Dot]

Today's strikes in Kharkiv were so horrifying but at least there's this:

I wonder if Russian soldiers are blundering on purpose? (Not that whatever they're doing is much better, they're still killing people.)

[Madrigal]

But thinking, in the first place, that these massive sanctions affecting Russian citizens will lead them to turn against the establishment might be overly wishful. They live in a different media world. There's a lot of news coming out about Russians learning about the conflict in shock, and surprisingly large protests, but nonetheless many are still hyper-nationalistic and supportive of their current regime. Putin oversaw the economic rise of Russia many years ago and significant improvements in living standards. Those concrete facts, combined with incessant propaganda and a draconian system for punishing dissidents, will be a lot of cognitive dissonance for most people to overcome to the extent that they'd not just start to have doubts, but actually overthrow him.

Anyway, even if they did overthrow him, I'm just not sure there's anyone better who could rise to power in the resulting mix of wartime humiliation, nationalism, and poverty. That, combined with the country's nuclear capacity, is pretty scary.

edit: just to be clear, though, I do support the other sanctions and actions taken against Russia. I liked that video of the oligarch crying on TV because he lost his Italian villa.

Glad you brought this up because the status quo seems to be that Russia should be sanctioned in ever possible way, which is kind of fucked up (I mean come on, they were expelled from FIFA World Cup, that's surely going too far? :p).

Seriously, I don't agree with all the sanctions either and in fact I don't agree with most sanctions against rogue countries because they target the general population which is just an innocent victim in most cases. There is just something disturbingly biblical in severely punishing an entire nation for the wrongs of its (often antidemocratic) leaders. It's the same logic that supports the use of nuclear weapons.

As for the number of people who support Putin, it's been pretty crazy but there is a sizeable portion of the international left (not the far left, but the kind of weird-ass illiberal left that has blindly supported people like Maduro and Assad in recent years) that have always seen Putin's challenges to US hegemony favorably and are basically supporting this war 100%. Obviously, I too have been amused on several occasions by Putin's challenges to US hegemony. But this is a fight between two world powers, USA and Russia (NATO being a mere instrument of US hegemony), and the left doesn't have a dog in that fight beyond standing with the Ukrainian people who've been caught in the middle of a reactionary war.

Putin's no bolshevik, he's an ex KGB and enemy of the peoples of the world, Russia is a police state just like the USA and I don't give two shits about its sphere of influence. I certainly don't think Ukraine should go back to Russia à la the prison of nations under tsarist rule or the stalinized USSR. Lenin's last stand against Stalin was all about giving self-determination to these historially oppressed peoples, even at the risk of losing them for the Soviet Union. When Putin said the Ukraine was "always Russia" and came into existence as a bolshevik invention, in his own twisted way he was telling the truth, if only because the early bolsheviks were the only ones to recognize it as a nation in between the long tsarist and stalinist nights.

I gotta catch up with the news and see how this is going.

[Madrigal]

Russia Readies to Break Ukraine Resistance (Asia Times)

Although, Russia’s campaign against Ukraine is only just starting. Russia has yet to bring its truly heavy-hitting forces to the frontlines and they appear to be more interested in probing Ukrainian defenses, draining Ukraine’s ammunition stores, encircling Kiev, and taking their time.

[Senseye]

While I 100% agree with you that Putin is primarily responsible for the war and its economic repercussions in Russia, I don't see how that supports your point that this newest round of sanctions won't destabilize Russia, if that's what you're saying (otherwise I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with).

It's not that I don't think the sanctions will destabilize Russia, I think they will, but I think that is a good thing. Or at least, it is the best US/EU countries can do short of direct military intervention.

Sure it punishes the Russian people, but as the old saying goes, people get the government they deserve. I will hold the same view if, for example, Trump gets a 2nd term, installs his cronies to rig elections and courts, and then changes the constitution to let himself run for additional terms. It will be...well you asked for it America. I mean, that's how dictators come to power.

But I digress, you have to hurt Russian somehow, and the economic sanctions will do it in the long run. At some point the people have to ask why are we starving really? If they are gullible enough to buy into the old "west is evil" propaganda, they can keep starving. If they can wake up and realize it is their own leadership's decisions causing them to starve, maybe they can start on the path to change. I realize toppling the Russian thugs up top would be no easy task and cannot happen over night.

If Putin doesn't invade Ukraine (which I see as having no benefit to the average Russian citizen) there would be no sanctions. I place the blame on him and him only and do not think the sanctions go to far. Maybe not far enough.

[Madrigal]

If they can wake up and realize it is their own leadership's decisions causing them to starve, maybe they can start on the path to change. I realize toppling the Russian thugs up top would be no easy task and cannot happen over night.

This strategy has worked spectacularly well in Cuba.

Proof that sanctions don't simply lead to regime change. Often they only serve to make the receiving government more authoritarian.

[Senseye]

Well, true. But Cuba is not invading anybody.

I wasn't particularly annoyed with Putin before this invasion. I mean he is a crook and a bad actor in general doing things like propping up the dictator in Belarus despite what appears to be the will of the people. But if he keeps his criminal activities within his own borders, I figure it is the Russian populace's problem to deal with.

Even now, I would not necessarily campaign for regime change. If Putin withdraws from Ukraine, I'd be OK with lifting the sanctions and accepting Ukraine into NATO so he doesn't come back.

Not that the world would not be a better place with Putin out of power. I mean he has a billion dollar palace and a super yacht, and many more billions stashed away, why not retire and live the good life?

[Catoptric]

Many of the lies being perpetuated today are a repeat of 2014 Crimean invasion, including Kafkaesque truths, where nothing is the truth.

2014:


Swedes believe that Russia will provoke Sweden into the conflict by targeting their island of Gotland, as they have already taken over the "snake island" closer to the Kyiv waterway, and evidently are going on all sides with submarines.

Danish Straits are shared by 3 countries though Sweden is not a member of NATO, and St. Petersberg, Russia is connected by the waterway, so it will be a bit odd knowing that Biden is taken a non-interference policy in an attempt to appear neutral (as he was given a warning evidently with Putin, or he fears direct conflict, believing it would be better to sacrifice Ukraine if they are unable to repel Putin.

*****
Putin was never a spy? https://qr.ae/pGdrpT

[Madrigal]

Even now, I would not necessarily campaign for regime change. If Putin withdraws from Ukraine, I'd be OK with lifting the sanctions and accepting Ukraine into NATO so he doesn't come back.

Ukraine neutrality isn't a Putin thing, it's a Russia thing. No Russian govt in its right mind will accept Ukraine in NATO because that means having US missiles on Russia's borders.

Gonna try to catch Biden's State of the Union today.

[puerile_polyp]

I think everyone is really overestimating the potential impact of sanctions on Russia. They have been preparing for this for a long time. They've been sanctioned many times for Crimea, Georgia, etc. The last round of sanctions ended up probably hurting the West more than them in the long run. They've been working with China on their own SWIFT alternative ever since we cut off Iran.

Also, they've still got the gas and Europe still needs it. If Russia cut it off right now there would be a humanitarian crisis and the real possibility of NATO going to war. But I think at this point they both know that's not gonna happen.

And most importantly, the sanctions don't even touch the people in control of the politics. The people living there are just like you and me and it will get worse for them but what are they gonna do, just like what are you gonna do about our fucked up economic situation as a result of our evil empire's bullshit.