Run-up to WW3

[jyng1]

I'm waiting for a Ukrainian strike on Russian soil. The Kremlin is in range of Ukrainian Fighter bombers and drones... it's all possible (if not probable). I heard the Ukrainians have retaken Ivankiv which will make taking Kyiv a bit more of a challenge...

[HighlyIrregular]

I admit I didn't read much on this but I hear things on the radio. If a Russian supported candidate becomes the new Ukranian leader and we help rebuild Ukraine, isn't that helping Russia? Maybe Nato countries should talk so much about helping rebuild Ukraine.

[jyng1]

Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station (the largest in Europe) is on fire; apparently the result of Russian artillery shelling.

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister warned that if something similar to Chernobyl happens at Zaporizhzhia "it will be 10 times larger."

[Dot]

^it's extinguished now.

I wasn't seeing this as the beginning of WW3.

Do you think the Spanish Civil War from '36 to '39 was part of WW2? Some people do. There are some paralels. Spain was a theater in which the USSR sent troops to fight Franco and Mussolini's fascist forces in a prelude to WW2, and I think that this could be another Spain, as in an antechamber in which the USA and NATO fight a proxy war with Russia prior to a direct military confrontation between world powers.

Ugh.

well, I do think that the war on the Ukrainian front will have to cool down soon or escalate to the point of oblivion for practical reasons. But I'm doubtful that the aftermath will be "just" a Cold War, though that would be bad enough and probably lead to a nuclear apocalypse over the next few decades anyway.

I think it's an even more volatile situation than the Spanish Civil War, from what I understand. One reason is that while the Spanish Civil War had a million different factions, the "story" of this war is simple (or at least widely interpreted that way, which is what matters). For one thing, while it's true that there is a neo-nazi faction in Ukraine, this is far from a civil war involving Ukrainian fascists, despite Putin's attempts to spin a story of internal divisions. The Azov regiment has, as of the 1st, officially (though I'm sure "approximately") joined the side of their Jewish president, which is bizarre but understandable considering that they put nationalism first.

Ukraine and its allies are overwhelmingly unified. Zelenskyy himself holds 90% support; 91% support his actions in the war; and they're generally aligned with both the West and the Ukrainian identity:

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Then, on the international scale, there's also obviously been overwhelming support for the Ukrainian side:

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(from the UN)

The reason I think this makes it more volatile is that this simple alignment lends itself to propaganda. Stories of good vs. evil, david vs. goliath, will more easily lead to international mobilization. Then combine that with the naivety of citizens in most of the supporting nations about the realities of war, which echoes the lead-up not to the Spanish Civil War, when more people were jaded, cynical, and open to nuance, but to WWI, since it also followed a long period of relative peace in the equivalent countries. I was just teaching a class about the Lost Generation last week, coincidentally, and we were looking at propaganda posters for WWI. They're pretty similar to the stuff I see floating around twitter, except now instead of some vague story of adventure, the implicit narrative compares this war to video games, marvel movies, and all the other CIA-driven propaganda that's been feeding war-hungry Americans for generations.

► Show Spoiler

And people want to pretend scenes from a video game depict the "ghost of kyiv," among other mythological heroes.

Putin, acting alone, is similarly hellbent on achieving the goals of his "side." Again, I think we can take his words at face value: he wants all of it, he believes it's "part of Russia," and he wants to commit genocide:

"Vladimir Putin took upon himself, without a drop of exaggeration, historical responsibility, deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations."
This is from that state media article: https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051 ... 62336.html

Obviously I don't know this for a fact, but sources like this thread lead me to think that Putin is and always has been off-the-rails so I don't think he's bluffing:

Anyway, the other aspect is that while Russia doesn't have many allies, China is an important factor. I don't know enough about Chinese and Asian politics, but I'd guess that from the Chinese government's perspective, Russia will end up in a similar relationship with China as North Korea, economically dependent and serving as their proxy buffer against the West. But I don't think Chinese relations with other countries will smooth over so easily. Similarly to how this war could be seen as a result of the ambiguity in power dynamics after the West's vague but unproven support for Ukraine, it has also apparently highlighted some scary question marks in Asia: Taiwan raised its alert level and China needed to clarify that "Taiwan is not Ukraine," South Korea and Japan are pushing now for nuclear weapons, India also had a conflicted response. If NATO and the US are focused on Europe again, embroiled in a battle that symbolically mirrors their own divisions in many ways, this might be a time when these countries see tensions rise so much that they also feel compelled to sort out their own territorial contests through violence.

Lastly, the "stability-instability paradox" of nuclear weapons lends itself to the likelihood of peace losing its hold in other nuclear-capable countries: https://nps.edu/documents/105858948/106 ... ff04f6cd8f

So I just think there's an overwhelming number of incendiary variables right now - variables that have been there for decades, and new & immediate variables too - which is why I said we're already in WWIII. Obviously I hope I'm wrong and am trying to look for evidence against this...I'm glad the fire got extinguished last night.

Sanctioning the Russian people is implying their voluntary compliance in the regime, even though it's a regime that over the last few days put children behind bars for protesting along with their parents. Even if you think, nonetheless, that they should be held personally responsible, the important thing is that we still don't know where their anger will turn after this, let alone the anger of Russians who already blame the US/NATO & Ukraine for this war.

I don't really have first hand experience with living in a dictatorship and state propaganda and all, so I can't say if the Russian people are deluded by it. I've seen a few interviews with elderly Russians (who apparently just watch state TV) and they seem to buy into the lie that Ukraine is attacking in Donbass areas and this whole episode is just the Russian army defending them. *shrug*

Yeah, there's still a ton of people behind Putin, certainly didn't mean to leave the impression I thought that *all* Russians were against him (in fact I think most are probably pro). It's just that whether or not there are people who don't like him doesn't really matter since they're in a police state where protesting gets you and your family put away for years, or worse. I think any change would need to come from the top, but then again, they're probably scared of being the one to tell him things aren't going well for similar reasons.

...I think people are seriously curious about what Putin's plans are tactically: he has a tiny fraction of his amount of fighters deployed and doesn't have air superiority (Ukraine still has most of its air force and its Turkish drones are creating havoc). Ukraine's Stugna P Anti Tank Missiles and NLAWS and St. Javelin are rapidly making Main Battle Tanks and AFVs obsolete in perfect tank country. His vehicle advance has outstripped his ability to provision them and they've been running out of gas all over the place (drones hitting fuel trains probably hasn't helped). There have even been reports they're using civilian spec walkie talkies to communicate and the Ukrainians have intercepted their communications and disrupted their activities. It's been a bit of a mess militarily.

To be frank it's been pretty embarrassing for Putin and that's not likely to be a good thing.

I heard that a lot of soldiers were surprised to suddenly find themselves fighting an actual war and there has been a lot of immediate surrenders on their side.

I'm just hoping that Putin will be satisfied with a land route to Crimea and back off before he sets fire to all the nuclear facilities. That's the other thing I wanted to mention that I forgot earlier...this whole idea of it being a proxy war and a conventional war seems like an "in the eye of the [governmental] beholder" thing. NATO is sending in not only weapons but also volunteer fighters...Putin is using his own nuclear weapons of a sort (ie these weaponized plants).

[Dot]

I imagine this is a typical view among Russians, and if so, far from enough to spark revolt...https://vickyward.substack.com/p/theres ... dium=email

I especially love when she says "it's cool to be a Ukrainian now" and "I didn’t start this war—why do I have to face such discriminations?"

[Senseye]

I think that girl is what is know as a "useful idiot". Did you read that part about her complaining that UN people walked out on the Russian ambassador and didn't try to understand his position? I heard that speech (translated), he was parroting Russian propaganda that Ukraine has been co-opted by neo-Nazi's and mother Russian is gently trying to pry them out. No civilians being hurt of course.

Listening to that garbage does not help one understand the other side. If she can't figure that out, it's doesn't bode well for her IQ.

[jyng1]

I think that girl is what is know as a "useful idiot". Did you read that part about her complaining that UN people walked out on the Russian ambassador and didn't try to understand his position? I heard that speech (translated), he was parroting Russian propaganda that Ukraine has been co-opted by neo-Nazi's and mother Russian is gently trying to pry them out. No civilians being hurt of course.

Listening to that garbage does not help one understand the other side. If she can't figure that out, it's doesn't bode well for her IQ.

We had the same plaintive pleas in our recent "Voices for Freedom" protest at Parliament. The only benefit I could see in "listening to both sides" in that situation was that one side was clearly bonkers.



Interesting that Putin would use artillery close to a nuclear reactor. I've been trying to find out whether some of the claims such as "a nuclear catastrophe which could lead to the evacuation of Europe" could come to pass. It seems unlikely as Chernobyl was a graphite cooled reactor without a steel reinforced concrete shield and the graphite caught fire; whereas the one they shelled was water cooled and it would take a significant direct hit to destroy.... but it seems such a grievous deliberate act that it surely must make Europe contemplate more direct intervention.

I booked an airbnb in Kyiv last night. I might keep doing it as I got a reply from the lady with a nice family who runs it in less than a minute and it felt pretty good to put money directly into the hands of someone I could see and who needs it.

[Catoptric]

Russian troops were observed blocking the entrances to residences, and appearing to be targeting civilians?

Also, this behavior from Russia is why they threaten journalists with 15 years of confinement.

Sky News team's harrowing account of their violent ambush in Ukraine this week
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-tea ... fzDvtD9HIw

Russians have no clue that Kyiv is being bombed, believe Putin's lies.
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/nation ... 1xlcI9cKeY

This is exactly what I was thinking (China also want's Tawain)
Ukraine conflict 'heightens the risk' of Chinese-American war, professor says
https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id ... =466&h=263

[Utisz]

The US has to just sit and wait things out if they continue according to their current strategy, constantly pressured by people around the world who are watching a livestream of genocide while the victims implore them to help.

The only unprecedented thing here is that it's a rival of the US doing it to a European country this time. Still, the usual playbook works pretty well.

I can see this leading to NATO involvement, which hugely raises the likelihood of nuclear war.

I think this won't happen because of Ukraine. I think the most likely way this happens is if Russia forces Article 5 by invading somewhere like Lithuania or some other NATO country.

As for the number of people who support Putin, it's been pretty crazy but there is a sizeable portion of the international left (not the far left, but the kind of weird-ass illiberal left that has blindly supported people like Maduro and Assad in recent years) that have always seen Putin's challenges to US hegemony favorably and are basically supporting this war 100%.

Fate flipped a coin for these "leftists", and it landed tails. They are basically QAnon born and raised in the other part of the neighbourhood.

Ukraine also gave up their nuclear weapons in the 90's in exchange for some vague promise of support from the US.

True, but they also did not have the means to use those weapons I believe. They did not have the launch keys/codes (which were held in Russia). Maybe they could have developed other means to "activate" the weapons though. I guess they bet on the vague promises versus the vague hopes of being able to harness the weapons. They are, to date, the only country to voluntarily give up their nuclear weapons (albeit impotent ones).

It probably would've been a worse world if they'd kept them, but obviously a safer Ukraine.

Yep.

And I think his fear of death reached new heights during covid, when he spent the whole time socially isolated in a bunker.

This part is really fucked. Couple his paranoia with a KGB "pragmatism" and Soviet "realpolitik" and that's a fucking hell of a cocktail. I mean Nixon's paranoia left a dent, but at least he wasn't cultured in an Orwellian agar dish for 69 years.

I ask you then whether you also think it's everyone's god-given right to hold a gun to their neighbor's head.

Depends on the neighbour.

That's exactly what is happening here. Joining NATO means setting up missiles pointing at Moscow right on Russia's border. I personally don't give a crap whether such a dangerous decision is reached by referendum.

If you view this from a US point of view, NATO enlargement is an utterly dick policy, like kicking a guy in the balls after he was unconscious.

If you view this from a Lithuanian point of view, joining NATO is a matter of survival.

My point is that there exists a Lithuanian point of view, and an Estonian one, and a Latvian one, and a Lithuanian one, and a Ukrainian one, and a Moldovan one, and a Romanian one, and ...

Framing NATO as some kind of self-defense collective of equal and soveriegn members is wrong and it's what the US would like to have us all believe. Even after dragging NATO countries to "unprovoked" war in the middle east for 20 years, something some people are very rapidly forgetting. As far as I'm concerned, the taliban weren't bothering anyone before USA & their NATO junior partners razed Afghanistan to the ground.

If Ukraine (or Georgia), like Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, had joined NATO, we would be (I expect) far less likely to be having this conversation, and possibly hundreds of children would still be alive. Now, is it better for around 10,000 innocent people to die helpless rather than there be a 0.1% chance of an innocent billion dying? I'm sure somewhere in Washington someone is calculating the answer.

So fuck NATO, but yes, they have a compelling product to offer. And for many of these ex-Warsaw Pact countries, that product is continued sovereignty, and not turning into Belarus or Kazakhstan.

(And yep, the US abused Article 5 for bullshit reasons relating to 9/11.)

...I think people are seriously curious about what Putin's plans are tactically: he has a tiny fraction of his amount of fighters deployed and doesn't have air superiority (Ukraine still has most of its air force and its Turkish drones are creating havoc). Ukraine's Stugna P Anti Tank Missiles and NLAWS and St. Javelin are rapidly making Main Battle Tanks and AFVs obsolete in perfect tank country. His vehicle advance has outstripped his ability to provision them and they've been running out of gas all over the place (drones hitting fuel trains probably hasn't helped). There have even been reports they're using civilian spec walkie talkies to communicate and the Ukrainians have intercepted their communications and disrupted their activities. It's been a bit of a mess militarily.

To be frank it's been pretty embarrassing for Putin and that's not likely to be a good thing.

I saw an interesting article at some point explaining how the upper echelons of the Russian military appointments had, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, become cluttered with pro-Putin cronies, who were excellent at politicking and scratching the back of others like them, but shit at things like logistics, military planning, etc. The Russian military had basically devolved into a decrepit, outdated way for lower class soldiers to "earn" property, and for the upper echelons to funnel power and wealth to themselves while also completely losing grip of reality and propping up Putin's ego and ambition. Basically Russian politics had a selection bias for the upper military echelons leaning towards a bunch of political "yes" men rather than people who were actually interested in military modernity, efficiency, logistics, etc. So probably through the inverse Russian human caterpillar structure they fed Putin a bunch of shit about the military capabilities for political reasons, and Putin, not knowing jack-shit about large scale military operations, thought that Zelensky, who he presumed to know something about, would capitulate and tow the line once his life was threatened.

Sky News team's harrowing account of their violent ambush in Ukraine this week
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-tea ... fzDvtD9HIw

It's hard to believe that this was not a deliberate ploy to discourage the Western media from hanging around and documenting events.

[Dot]

The US has to just sit and wait things out if they continue according to their current strategy, constantly pressured by people around the world who are watching a livestream of genocide while the victims implore them to help.

The only unprecedented thing here is that it's a rival of the US doing it to a European country this time. Still, the usual playbook works pretty well.

I didn't suggest that there's anything unprecedented about how Russia is approaching this war in its current stage; if anything, they've held back so far instead of just razing Kyiv, because Putin seems to have genuinely believed it was almost entirely "proto-Russians" there and a few cultural traitors to kill off (which makes Putin's ultimate goals different from those he had in, for example, Chechnya, now that he realizes it's 100% traitors who "stole" Russian culture). I'm sure things will continue escalating, but that's beside the point. What's unprecedented is the number of people in democratic countries who are pressuring their governments to take action against Russia because they're watching this brutality for the first time. I think this has been a net positive so far, but it's a difficult needle to thread for the reasons I said above, and this highly emotional public pressure could move things in an even more dangerous direction.

Ukraine also gave up their nuclear weapons in the 90's in exchange for some vague promise of support from the US.

True, but they also did not have the means to use those weapons I believe. They did not have the launch keys/codes (which were held in Russia). Maybe they could have developed other means to "activate" the weapons though. I guess they bet on the vague promises versus the vague hopes of being able to harness the weapons. They are, to date, the only country to voluntarily give up their nuclear weapons (albeit impotent ones).

This seems to connect to a recurring issue. Ukrainians also weren't trained on the most modern weapons which is why weapon supplies from neighboring countries (notably Germany) have been less than optimal. But these practical factors don't change the narrative.