Run-up to WW3

[jyng1]

This seems to connect to a recurring issue. Ukrainians also weren't trained on the most modern weapons which is why weapon supplies from neighboring countries (notably Germany) have been less than optimal. But these practical factors don't change the narrative.

Which weapons are you referring to? I think they've sent Javelins which are likely to be quite similar to their locally made Stugna-P (of which they have many thousands) and Stingers (which even the Mujahideen managed to use over 40 years ago). The Germans are also getting rid of a few thousand Soviet era Strela anti air missiles which the Ukrainians are likely to have or recently have had.

I think their major problem is that it can take several years to get really proficient as a rifleman (patrolling, section, platoon, company and battalion tactics, mortar, sustained fire GPMG, recon, anti-tank, sniper etc, etc) and they've got thousands of recent civilians who have only fired 16 rounds in their life before.

Then there's the whole issue of keeping up supplies when you can't fly shit in and you don't have air superiority to allow you to fill the roads with trucks...

[Dot]

This seems to connect to a recurring issue. Ukrainians also weren't trained on the most modern weapons which is why weapon supplies from neighboring countries (notably Germany) have been less than optimal. But these practical factors don't change the narrative.

Which weapons are you referring to? I think they've sent Javelins which are likely to be quite similar to their locally made Stugna-P (of which they have many thousands) and Stingers (which even the Mujahideen managed to use over 40 years ago). The Germans are also getting rid of a few thousand Soviet era Strela anti air missiles which the Ukrainians are likely to have or recently have had.

I think their major problem is that it can take several years to get really proficient as a rifleman (patrolling, section, platoon, company and battalion tactics, mortar, sustained fire GPMG, recon, anti-tank, sniper etc, etc) and they've got thousands of recent civilians who have only fired 16 rounds in their life before.

Then there's the whole issue of keeping up supplies when you can't fly shit in and you don't have air superiority to allow you to fill the roads with trucks...

I'm not sure if I'm remembering the terms right but the US (I believe) promised some jets and then backtracked because they would be useless, and yeah Germany sent them lots of Soviet-era stuff including rotten missile crates.

[jyng1]

I'm not sure if I'm remembering the terms right but the US (I believe) promised some jets and then backtracked because they would be useless, and yeah Germany sent them lots of Soviet-era stuff including rotten missile crates.

A number of ex Warsaw pact countries were going to provide them with MIGs and Sukois because they knew how to use them, but they've mostly pulled out of that commitment. Not sure why, but I imagine there's considerable pressure not to escalate the situation.

Turkey is sending them a lot more Bayraktar drones which have been quite successful.

[Dot]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... in-ukraine

This is why I'm worried we're past the point of no return. The public supports Putin and his officials are in his "submarine" as the writer says. I can't see NATO not getting involved if it seems like Putin doesn't see any incentive to stop escalating. Especially combined with the attacks on nuclear plants, which obviously aren't confined in their effects to Ukrainian territory. The "best" case is the annihilation of Ukraine and the worst is the end of the world.

[jyng1]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... in-ukraine

This is why I'm worried we're past the point of no return. The public supports Putin and his officials are in his "submarine" as the writer says. I can't see NATO not getting involved if it seems like Putin doesn't see any incentive to stop escalating. Especially combined with the attacks on nuclear plants, which obviously aren't confined in their effects to Ukrainian territory. The "best" case is the annihilation of Ukraine and the worst is the end of the world.

Oh I dunno. I think Putin probably needs to read the room. He can control the media to an extent but there are 10 million Russians living in the USA all probably video calling family back in Russia. We've got a girl from Moscow working for us and I bet she's been telling her mum what's been going on.

I just can't see any end game in the Ukraine. It'd be like the US occupying Canada... they might win the war but there'd be a lot of Yanks buried in the woods... and what would it be like to occupy a country with a gazillion Stingers, NLAWS, Stugna-Ps and Javelins buried in every farmers backyard knowing you could be blown to heaven from 5 kilometres away at any moment?

[Dot]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... in-ukraine

This is why I'm worried we're past the point of no return. The public supports Putin and his officials are in his "submarine" as the writer says. I can't see NATO not getting involved if it seems like Putin doesn't see any incentive to stop escalating. Especially combined with the attacks on nuclear plants, which obviously aren't confined in their effects to Ukrainian territory. The "best" case is the annihilation of Ukraine and the worst is the end of the world.

Oh I dunno. I think Putin probably needs to read the room. He can control the media to an extent but there are 10 million Russians living in the USA all probably video calling family back in Russia. We've got a girl from Moscow working for us and I bet she's been telling her mum what's been going on.

I just can't see any end game in the Ukraine. It'd be like the US occupying Canada... they might win the war but there'd be a lot of Yanks buried in the woods... and what would it be like to occupy a country with a gazillion Stingers, NLAWS, Stugna-Ps and Javelins buried in every farmers backyard knowing you could be blown to heaven from 5 kilometres away at any moment?

I'd be curious to hear what her mom tells her, if you ever discuss it with her.

I think Arendt's quote here fits, since Putin is trying to immerse himself and Russia in a past era: “one of the greatest advantages of the totalitarian elites of the twenties and thirties was to turn any statement of fact into a question of motive.” For many of these people, "believing" that there is a war in Ukraine would be equivalent to betraying their country and family, with potentially horrifying consequences, which is how we arrive at this:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60600487

"Oleksandra [in Ukraine] says her mother just repeats the narratives of what she hears on Russian state TV channels.

"It really scared me when my mum exactly quoted Russian TV. They are just brainwashing people. And people trust them," says Oleksandra.

"My parents understand that some military action is happening here. But they say: 'Russians came to liberate you. They won't ruin anything, they won't touch you. They're only targeting military bases'.""

I think more fundamentally, where I'm differing from most of you here, is that I think Russia has very quickly finished its evolution into a totalitarian state with this invasion. And such a state needs an endless supply of enemy bodies and constant escalation to prove its strength, even more so than it did in Putin and his predecessors' other wars. But his other wars were so horrific in themselves, I suspect that his only way to escalate further is to destroy everything. I don't actually feel like writing more about this because it's so depressing but if anyone can explain how this is incorrect and the world won't end I'd be happy to hear why.

[Dot]

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/u ... -genocide/

"Putin has declared that his goal is the “denazificiation” of Ukraine. This insane objective conceals his true aim of extinguishing Ukrainian statehood and eradicating all traces of a separate Ukrainian identity. He claims to be fighting against a small minority of extremists. Instead, it is now clear that Russia is at war with an entire nation of over 40 million.

In order to create the russified Ukraine he dreams of, Putin will need to pacify or remove the vast majority of the population. The Kremlin has already reportedly drawn up lists of Ukrainian politicians, journalists, and activists who will be subjected to arrest and possible execution if Russia succeeds in occupying Ukraine’s major cities. Given the scale and ferocity of popular opposition to the Russian invasion, any pacification campaign would need to rival the worst crimes against humanity of the totalitarian twentieth century."

[puerile_polyp]

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/u ... -genocide/

"Putin has declared that his goal is the “denazificiation” of Ukraine. This insane objective conceals his true aim of extinguishing Ukrainian statehood and eradicating all traces of a separate Ukrainian identity. He claims to be fighting against a small minority of extremists. Instead, it is now clear that Russia is at war with an entire nation of over 40 million.

In order to create the russified Ukraine he dreams of, Putin will need to pacify or remove the vast majority of the population. The Kremlin has already reportedly drawn up lists of Ukrainian politicians, journalists, and activists who will be subjected to arrest and possible execution if Russia succeeds in occupying Ukraine’s major cities. Given the scale and ferocity of popular opposition to the Russian invasion, any pacification campaign would need to rival the worst crimes against humanity of the totalitarian twentieth century."

You mean like commando squads kicking in doors at night and whisking people away to black sites where they are tortured and their families may never find out what happened to them? Sounds exactly like what the USA has been doing all over the world for the past thirty years at least. Denazification looks like the Global War on Terror with the title crossed out. Ironically a lot of those black sites were said to be in Eastern Europe as well. I wonder if Russia will be using some of the same ones. Or maybe they'll build a prison on Cuba just like ours. It's still there being used for the same purpose.

[Dot]

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/u ... -genocide/

"Putin has declared that his goal is the “denazificiation” of Ukraine. This insane objective conceals his true aim of extinguishing Ukrainian statehood and eradicating all traces of a separate Ukrainian identity. He claims to be fighting against a small minority of extremists. Instead, it is now clear that Russia is at war with an entire nation of over 40 million.

In order to create the russified Ukraine he dreams of, Putin will need to pacify or remove the vast majority of the population. The Kremlin has already reportedly drawn up lists of Ukrainian politicians, journalists, and activists who will be subjected to arrest and possible execution if Russia succeeds in occupying Ukraine’s major cities. Given the scale and ferocity of popular opposition to the Russian invasion, any pacification campaign would need to rival the worst crimes against humanity of the totalitarian twentieth century."

You mean like commando squads kicking in doors at night and whisking people away to black sites where they are tortured and their families may never find out what happened to them? Sounds exactly like what the USA has been doing all over the world for the past thirty years at least. Denazification looks like the Global War on Terror with the title crossed out. Ironically a lot of those black sites were said to be in Eastern Europe as well. I wonder if Russia will be using some of the same ones. Or maybe they'll build a prison on Cuba just like ours. It's still there being used for the same purpose.

Putin is arguably parodying American language here - as he did more explicitly in his discussion of peacekeeping forces and denuclearization of Ukraine - but it's reductive to say that his actual and planned atrocities are just the same as American atrocities.

[Dot]

I've got a lot of stuff to catch up on so I'll be dropping out again now. It was good to write things out and hear other people's thoughts.